Around this time a year ago, about 85 per cent of economists and market analysts – including me – expected that the US and global economy would suffer a recession. Falling but still-sticky inflation suggested that monetary policy would grow tighter before rapidly easing once the recession hit; sharemarkets would fall, and bond yields would remain high.
Supporters listen to Donald Trump at a rally. The former US president could be the great spoiler-in-chief this year. AP
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Project Syndicate
Nouriel Roubini is Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team.
