Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the recession risk in many major economies had tipped from “possible to probable” as leading economists said the decline in global conditions, volatility in financial markets and rapidly rising interest rates would make it harder for Australia to escape a downturn.

With markets pricing an 80 per cent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the cash rate by 50 basis points on Tuesday, economists said a recession was now a “plausible” scenario, especially if the RBA raises too far.