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Warren Hogan

Jobs boom means rate rise will be close call

It is becoming increasingly clear that a critical reason the economy is proving resilient to tighter monetary policy is a chronic shortage of labour.

Warren HoganEconomist

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The RBA will consider increasing the cash rate at this week’s monetary policy meeting, just as they did in May. Once again, they will probably hold off and keep the cash rate at 4.35 per cent, where it has been since Melbourne Cup Day last year.

But the flow of data since the last meeting in early May will make it a very close call to hold off on further tightening.

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Warren Hogan is managing director of  EQ Economics and economic adviser to Judo Bank.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/jobs-boom-means-rate-rise-will-be-close-call-20240616-p5jm4h