Opinion

How to get the truth from economic forecasting

Everybody wants to know if interest rates are going to come down this year. The best way to find out is by challenging economists’ assumptions.

Cherelle MurphyEconomist

Jan 30, 2024 – 12.11pm

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A 2023 recession in the US was predicted with near certainty by economists just over a year ago. It didn’t happen.

Economic forecasting is difficult, often wrong, and begs the question: is it worthwhile?

Cherelle Murphy is EY Regional Chief Economist, Oceania

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