September 2024
Did central banks get the inflation crisis right?
Rate-cutting cycles in recent decades – such as in the early 2000s, or during the financial crisis of 2007 – have tended to be associated with steep economic downturns.
February 2024
Why a disinflationary boom may be upon us
While a soft economic landing is the most likely outcome, it’s hard to ignore the possibility that a lower rate of price growth could be setting the sharemarket up for a strong rally.
January 2024
Why investors expect the Fed will keep this sharemarket party going
Bulls are hoping that 1995 is the template for a market rally, as the US central bank starts cutting rates after pulling off an elusive “soft landing”.
November 2023
Munger’s infamous quotes live on. Here are some of the best
If Warren Buffett is the king of the investment wisecrack, then his business partner Charlie Munger, who died on Wednesday aged 99, was the ideal straight man.
August 2023
Powell won’t be solving the disinflation puzzle at Jackson Hole
The US Federal Reserve chairman is likely to repeat last year’s tactic: make a short speech, without setting out a clear view on the path to a smooth landing.
August 2022
The only reason the RBA will cut rates next year starts with R
Sharemarket investors are belatedly waking up to the reality that central banks will need to inflict some pain to get inflation back to their targets.
June 2022
Who would want to be a central banker right now?
Central banks became enormously powerful after the global financial crisis. Now there are questions on whether they can do what is needed of them.
January 2022
A fascinating page-turner made from an unlikely subject
The Lords of Easy Money is a fascinating and propulsive story about the Federal Reserve — yes, you read that right
August 2021
Fed’s stoic Powell prepares for his greatest challenge
The US Federal Reserve chairman appears to be prepared to take a leaf out of Paul Volker’s book and become deeply unpopular by raising interest rates.
June 2021
Inflation hawks wait for Fed feeding time
The US Federal Reserve wants actual, not forecast, inflation to be the guide and this week’s meeting won’t alter that position.
December 2020
Loss of AAA ratings puts down a debt marker
Markets have to believe that principal debt can be repaid, or that the taxes can be raised to do so. If they don’t, then the music will stop on the cheap money.
December 2019
The legacy and lessons of Paul Volcker
In tackling today’s challenges, the details of what Volcker did are irrelevant. But his lessons are not: do the right thing even if the right choice is rather less obvious today; do not put your trust in unbridled finance; and have courage.
October 2019
Why you shouldn't always listen to economists
Market-oriented reforms transformed the world but failed to head off the crash of 2008. With economists' role in the crisis under scrutiny, what comes next?
August 2019
Yield inversion floods Wall St with recession fears
The Dow plunged 800 points in the worst day of the year and Donald Trump blamed the Federal Reserve as investors repositioned for a dimming economic outlook.