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Christopher Joye

Hopes for a soft landing remain heroic

Government spending crowding out private sector activity means that inflation and interest rates are likely to remain high.

Christopher JoyeColumnist

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For all the hyperbolic talk of rate cuts, there has been a massive recent increase in long-term interest rates as markets adjust to the reality that the inflation genie may not yet be firmly planted back in its bottle.

In the US, the benchmark risk-free interest rate, the 10-year government bond yield, has surged from as low as 3.4 per cent in September all the way to 4.1 per cent at the time of writing.

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clarification

This article was updated to reflect that Victoria’s government debt is projected to reach $260 billion by 2028.

Christopher Joye is a portfolio manager with Coolabah Capital, which invests in securities, including those discussed in his column. Connect with Christopher on Twitter.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/hopes-for-a-soft-landing-remain-heroic-20241018-p5kjgo