As much as bottom-up stockpickers say it is business models and cash flow not macroeconomic conditions that drive long-term share prices, there’s no escaping interest rates, inflation and the US election for anyone playing along in markets.

The big one in the near-term is the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. Rates markets expect a 25 basis point cut next week to kick off the downcycle, and follow on cuts in November and December to round out the year.