This Month
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
A February interest rate cut is a goer if RBA changes one thing
Should the Reserve Bank downwardly revise its 4.5 per cent estimate of full employment, the first reduction will happen in just a few weeks.
October 2024
- Opinion
- Sharemarket
The sharemarket’s rally comes down to this missing ingredient
There’s a bad moon on the rise: bond yields are climbing and the gigantic US budget deficit is not being addressed in the presidential election, and it needs to be.
August 2024
- Opinion
- Sharemarket
Time to panic or the correction we had to have?
Investors’ hope for a Goldilocks scenario all came unstuck last week. But rather than succumb to hysteria, it’s better to recalibrate risk appetite.
June 2024
- Opinion
- Interest rates
The RBA is walking a tightrope between inflation and jobs
As Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser said on Thursday, it’s a mistake to change policy on one piece of data. But it is an egregious folly to ignore serial indications of sticky inflation.
April 2024
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
The RBA is still threading the needle
The Reserve Bank’s next policy move is more likely to be a rate cut despite the evidence seen in the stronger than expected March inflation figures, says GSFM’s Stephen Miller.
It’s a long and winding path that leads to a rate cut
The reality is there is still some way to go as the RBA balances the challenge of reducing inflation while keeping the economy ticking.
February 2024
- Opinion
- Bonds
Expect a ‘verbal pivot’ from the RBA but no imminent rate cuts
A reduction in the cash rate some time this year is plausible, but there is still some distance to travel before arriving at any imperative decision.
October 2023
- Opinion
- Australian economy
Chalmers must do more on IR to reach full employment
Sooner or later, the treasurer will need to translate the worthy ambitions of the employment white paper into a clear set of actionable policy prescriptions.