February
Time for a Bex and good lie down after RBA rate call
Amid the hyperbole and hysteria, I’m tempted to take governor Michele Bullock’s explanation of the finely balanced decision at face value.
Could Donald Trump’s tariffs trigger an Australian rate cut?
A global trade conflict might accelerate the RBA rate cut path rather than slow it down.
January
CPI pushes the rate cut door wide open
RBA is overachieving on inflation and should “break on through to the other side” to reduce the policy rate in February.
A February interest rate cut is a goer if RBA changes one thing
Should the Reserve Bank downwardly revise its 4.5 per cent estimate of full employment, the first reduction will happen in just a few weeks.
October 2024
The sharemarket’s rally comes down to this missing ingredient
There’s a bad moon on the rise: bond yields are climbing and the gigantic US budget deficit is not being addressed in the presidential election, and it needs to be.
August 2024
Time to panic or the correction we had to have?
Investors’ hope for a Goldilocks scenario all came unstuck last week. But rather than succumb to hysteria, it’s better to recalibrate risk appetite.
June 2024
The RBA is walking a tightrope between inflation and jobs
As Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser said on Thursday, it’s a mistake to change policy on one piece of data. But it is an egregious folly to ignore serial indications of sticky inflation.
April 2024
The RBA is still threading the needle
The Reserve Bank’s next policy move is more likely to be a rate cut despite the evidence seen in the stronger than expected March inflation figures, says GSFM’s Stephen Miller.
It’s a long and winding path that leads to a rate cut
The reality is there is still some way to go as the RBA balances the challenge of reducing inflation while keeping the economy ticking.
February 2024
Expect a ‘verbal pivot’ from the RBA but no imminent rate cuts
A reduction in the cash rate some time this year is plausible, but there is still some distance to travel before arriving at any imperative decision.
October 2023
Chalmers must do more on IR to reach full employment
Sooner or later, the treasurer will need to translate the worthy ambitions of the employment white paper into a clear set of actionable policy prescriptions.