August 2023
Powell won’t be solving the disinflation puzzle at Jackson Hole
The US Federal Reserve chairman is likely to repeat last year’s tactic: make a short speech, without setting out a clear view on the path to a smooth landing.
Micro-pricing a big puzzle in inflation’s persistence
The real world of price setting doesn’t look much like the supply and demand schedules of Economics 101.
June 2023
What is the new normal for rates, and when do we get there?
Ben Bernanke went a bridge too far in monetary policy after the 2008 financial crisis. We are now paying the price in a new inflationary world.
March 2023
Bond maturity mismatch shows why near zero rates a serious error
In time, we may come to wonder why the chief architect of the policy that has created the painful imbalances in bank balance sheets – Ben Bernanke – won the Nobel Prize.
The economic case for building nuclear subs offshore not in Adelaide
There is no point in strengthening our defence industry if we weaken the overall economy by doing so inefficiently.
October 2021
Circular case for lower interest rates ignores common sense
The downward spiral in the cost of money hasn’t pushed up growth. It has distorted asset prices, and means rates must rise sooner or later.
September 2021
No point keeping money so cheap
Holding down interest rates to make inflation rise is long past any usefulness. The best way to start the painful adjustment is to begin early.
August 2021
How QE became an addiction we must learn to break
Central bankers must underline that printing money was an emergency fix, not a routine solution to economic problems.
Reserve Bank’s QE sends monetary policy back to the future
The 1980s framework was designed to make politically unpalatable decisions possible. We need to return to it.
July 2021
It’s the Fed’s fault we’re stuck in low interest rate world
The US central bank’s loose money habit was poorly conceived. But it has still forced everyone else into lock-step.
April 2021
Yes, we can spend our way to recovery if we are careful
Australia has rightly lost its fear of big deficits. But we must walk back debt in lockstep with private sector expansion.
March 2021
Blame austerity, not the RBA for post-GFC slow growth
Ross Garnaut is wrong to fault the Reserve Bank for not cutting rates during the ‘Dog Days’ of 2013-2019. The real culprit was elsewhere.
If money is practically free, why is nobody investing it?
Negative interest rates won’t help when it is clear that there are other reasons entrepreneurs have lost their mojo.
February 2021
What’s gone wrong with our interest rate policy
The RBA has been forced to move in lockstep with a misguided US Federal Reserve that’s held hostage by volatile financial markets.
May 2020
Normality is at least a couple of years away
While the medical prognosis looks less alarming, the economic prospect is as grim as ever. The Reserve Bank has done what it can, now it's up to the government, writes Stephen Grenville.
March 2020
The government's bazooka is biggest, not the RBA's
There is only so much the RBA can do to make lenders lend and borrowers borrow. Injecting cash into companies is the government's job..
The RBA's job is to back banks, not bail out gamblers
There is no liquidity crisis for most financial assets, and central banks have no business buying up the lemons at the expense of the prudent.
January 2020
Revising the inflation target is futile
With monetary policy exhausted, below-target inflation isn't holding back the economy. We need effective measures to stimulate investment and growth.
December 2019
A budget surplus is just a very expensive luxury
Budget policy is one reason for our mediocre economy. We should ignore discredited ratings agencies and spend for growth.
November 2019
How QE would undo decades of healthy deregulation
Special purpose housing lending to swing the economy back into growth would have all sorts of dangerous consequences.