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Stephen Grenville

Bond maturity mismatch shows why near zero rates a serious error

In time, we may come to wonder why the chief architect of the policy that has created the painful imbalances in bank balance sheets – Ben Bernanke – won the Nobel Prize.

Stephen GrenvilleFormer central banker

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The demise of Silicon Valley Bank has triggered concerns about American banks. In many ways SVB was idiosyncratic, with its narrow customer base and largely uninsured deposits. But it illustrates a wider problem: the decade of low interest rates created serious imbalances in financial balance sheets, made painfully apparent by the response of monetary policy to rapid inflation. As global interest rates move up, maturity risk is coming home to roost.

Around half of SVB’s assets were government bonds – surely the safest of assets. However, as bond-yields rose from the abnormally low rates of a few years ago to a more normal level, the current value of bonds fell sharply. Yes, a bond is assured of paying face value at maturity. But in the meantime, investors could benefit from the new higher interest rate by buying a new bond. The market price of the old bond had to fall to reflect this reality.

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Stephen Grenville is a former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia and a non-resident fellow of the Lowy Institute.

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