This Month
Rumours of Xi’s downfall distract from China’s real challenges
The notion that Xi Jinping is about to be toppled is a distraction from the real cleavages in Chinese politics.
June
Trump’s ‘deal’ with China is just a waypoint to the next fight
Donald Trump behaves as though he has an unfettered ability to dictate terms to foreign countries, but that doesn’t work when you are so reliant on a single supplier.
April
My China trip made one thing clear about the global trade war
The Chinese mean it when they say they won’t cave to Washington’s escalating threats. They have many cards to play.
February
Trump reaching out to Putin is no ‘reverse Nixon’
The Pollyannaish claim that the US president is playing diplomatic chess to isolate Russia from China is a fantasy.
January
Australia-China trade will be caught in middle of Trump’s tariff war
Australia is now more dependent on a single market than it has ever been since the late 1940s when our biggest customer was the United Kingdom.
November 2024
Xi got his message across, but calls to oppose protectionism are a bit rich
Australia is right to rail against Donald Trump’s tariffs, but we should also make our voice heard on Xi Jinping’s “China First” policies.
October 2024
Understand Xi and you’ll adjust expectations for China stimulus
Where Beijing’s powerful state economy is headed will be determined by the Great Helmsman.
August 2024
Beijing could do without Trump’s unpredictability on steroids
The conventional idea is that China would prefer the chaos of second Trump term. But on the ground, officials and scholars are wary of a Trump victory.
July 2024
The smarter way to exploit China’s technical expertise
China has a lot of know-how of its own. We should be working out how to absorb it rather than walling it off.
June 2024
Australia-China ties are not ready for AUKUS
It’s no surprise that Li Qiang will head straight to Australia’s mining capital and most pro-Chinese city. But he will bypass the Stirling naval base where US nuclear-powered submarines will arrive.
May 2024
US-China trade war choices for Chalmers’ green budget
The new incentives for critical minerals and green hydrogen are about more than industry policy. They will play out in a global contest over rival political systems.
March 2024
The Wang-Wong doctrine: embrace and fight at the same time
China and Australia’s foreign ministers are both adept at the art of making frenemies. It’s working for now, but for how long?
How Australia can avoid predictable ASEAN pitfalls
South-East Asia will happily talk to us about stability and trade, but ignore us if we are only interested in pushing values and rivalries.
February 2024
Why the Peak China story is overdone
China’s economy is no longer about to dash past the US, but its ability to mobilise capital, people, resources and military muscle for specific purposes remains enormous.
January 2024
Why Taiwan’s election is a disaster for China and dilemma for the West
A third win for the DPP would be a terrible failure for Beijing. But other nations must frame support for Taiwan beyond just the threats of war.
December 2023
German car colossus too slow as Chinese EVs dominate
But thanks to the boom in demand for lithium, Australia has been able to profitably surf in the slipstream of China’s ascendancy.
November 2023
A dramatic new twist in Taiwan’s politics
A joint ticket between two China-friendly candidates has narrowed the field in Beijing’s favour in the crucial January election.
Labor’s AUKUS woes a boon for Beijing
The Chinese are unlikely to raise AUKUS during Albanese’s visit this weekend, but they will not be displeased by the security pact’s funding troubles.
September 2023
China is steadily building an alternative world order
While it purports to steer clear of superpower competition, Beijing’s global governance initiative is driven by it, unfurling in a slow burn over more than a decade.
August 2023
What does Australia do in the economic world war?
China is turning its economy inwards on to a near-war footing. America is mobilising for clean energy revolution. But there is a place for Australia too.