MLA has revealed its price and production estimates for 2025

MLA is tipping a herd and flock reduction and have revealed the price estimates on young cattle and feeders as well as trade and restocker lambs.

Cattle prices are being tipped to plateau and heavy and trade lamb prices may rise slightly by this winter.

It comes as the nation is poised to continue breaking production records at a time when both the Australian cattle herd and sheep flock decline.

The cattle herd is expected to decline to 30.1 million by June this year, and to continue to decline into 2027, due to increased turn-off of older breeding cows and dry conditions in the south.

The sheep flock is estimated to decline by 5.9 million, or 7.4 per cent, to sit at 73.2 million by mid year, and then stabilise in the next two years, also due to drought in the south as older breeding ewes are sold off.

This is according to key insights revealed on Monday by Meat and Livestock Australia in its 2025 projections.

The prices forecast – an aggregated analyst price estimate using experts outside of MLA – points to an upwards trend on heavy and trade lamb but softening trend on restocker lamb into June this year:

THE National Heavy Lamb Indicator is tipped to hit 842c//kg carcass weight, an increase from the current level of 806c/kg.

THE National Restocker Lamb Indicator is expected to decline to 696c/kg by June 2025, though MLA notes “seasonal price weakness in winter may limit growth”. It is now at 738c/kg.

THE National Trade Lamb Indicator is forecast to increase to 821c/kg as lamb and mutton supply tightens and processing capacity expands. It is currently at 782c/kg.

On cattle, the outlook is subdued:

THE National Young Cattle Indicator is forecast to trend sideways, declining 1 per cent to 358c/kg liveweight by June 30. It is now at 342c/kg.

THE National Feeder Steer Indicator is tipped to lift a modest 1 per cent to reach 364c/kg.

THE National Heavy Steer Indicator is forecast to ease 1 per cent to 351c/kg.

MLA is also forecasting production records will continue to be broken as carcass weights remain high.

Lamb slaughter is expected to remain high throughout 2025 as the second largest annual number on record at 26.2 million head.

MLA is also pointing to tight global supplies as the US begins the long-overdue herd rebuild and drought conditions in Brazil ease.

MLA also reports tight financial conditions are impacting many producers around the nation.

It’s March 2025 Australian Cattle Industry Projection reports production costs remain a significant concern for producers, with interest rates, exchange rates and other market forces affecting profit margins.

Producers have also moved to draw down on Farm Management Deposits, with 2023 representing, for the first time since the scheme’s inception, the total value of

accounts fell, according to MLA.

“As of late 2024, $994 million was held in 7209 beef Farm Management Deposit accounts,” the report states.

“Additionally, $1.4 billion and $353m were held in grain-sheep/beef and sheep-beef respectively.

“Beef accounts have declined significantly. Over the 12 months since, producers have continued to withdraw money out of FMD accounts, resulting in a $164 million (14 per cent) reduction.”