Qld election day’s exit poll shockwaves: Labor surges, election too close to call

An exclusive Courier-Mail exit poll of 2000 voters across 10 crucial seats reveals Labor and the LNP are neck and neck as voting closes in the 2024 Queensland election.

An exit poll of 2000 voters across 10 crucial seats reveals Labor and the LNP are neck and neck as voting closes in the 2024 Queensland election.

The Queensland election result will come down to the wire, as exclusive exit polling reveals the two major parties are neck-and-neck as voting closes.

The Courier-Mail polled 2000 voters as they cast their ballots at a cross-section of electorates today, with the final tally revealing 33.9 per cent of voters had backed the LNP, while Labor was just 0.3 points behind with 33.6 per cent of the vote.

The results show an incredible comeback for the Miles Government, who trailed 48-30 in The Courier-Mail’s first exit poll, conducted on October 14.

The latest Newspoll, released on Thursday, had Labor on 33 per cent of the vote, compared with 42 per cent to the LNP.

Despite leaked Labor polling this week tipping Katter’s Australian Party winning Mundingburra, in Townsville, today’s exit poll showed the LNP and ALP ahead with equal votes.

Of the 200 people polled across the seat both Labor’s Les Walker and the LNP’s Janelle Poole had 75 votes (37.5 per cent), while KAP’s Michael Pugh picked up 31 votes (15.5 per cent) and 14 people (7 per cent) voted for Rebecca Haley from the Greens. Just five people voted for One Nation’s Mick Olsen.

Premier Steven Miles visits the polling booth at New Farm State School with Grace Grace this morning. Picture: Adam Head

Private schoolteacher Brittany Watts, from Kelso, said while she was typically a Labor voter, this time she had voted LNP.

“We need change especially when it comes to our legal system and the amount of crime, that’s my main issue,” she said.

Labor came in ahead in Mulgrave, in Cairns, with 64 (32 per cent) of the 200 voters polled. In comparison, the LNP got 51 votes (25.5 per cent).

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli with wife Tegan, voting at Springwood State High School. Picture: Liam Kidston

One voter polled admitted she had completely changed her mind at the very last minute.

“I wanted to vote Labor because I didn’t like what was being said about changing the abortion laws, it’s my body my choice,” she said.

“But I called my mum before voting and she said ‘it’s not true, all the stuff Labor are saying, they’re putting a spin on it.”

In Keppel, it is a three-party race with the LNP’s Nigel Hutton slightly ahead with 63 (31.5 per cent) of the 200 votes counted, while the incumbent Labor member Brittany Lauga had 57 votes (28.5 per cent) and One Nation’s James Ashby got 54 votes (27 per cent).

In the state’s southeast, the LNP appears likely to romp home in Caloundra, with former teacher Kendall Morton to take the seat back from Jason Hunt.

Hunt won Caloundra off the back of the retirement of LNP member Mick McArdle in 2020, after he had held it for 16 years.

Member for Keppel Brittany Lauga. Picture Adam Head

LNP candidate for Redcliffe Kerri-Anne Dooley.

Of the 200 voters polled there, 96 (48 per cent) said they had voted for the LNP, while 59 (29.5 per cent) had voted ALP, 26 (13 per cent) for the Greens, 11 for One Nation (5.5 per cent) and 6 (3 per cent) for the Legalise Cannabis party.

One voter in Caloundra said he gave his vote to the LNP because he was “just looking for a change” in the state’s leadership, while another person said the abortion debate was the “only thing” that influenced her vote.

“I don’t really understand much politics but the abortion stuff was concerning,” she said.

Similarly, Redcliffe looks set for a big change as Labor’s Yvette D’Ath retires.

Of the 200 people polled, 91 (45.5 per cent) said they had voted for the LNP’s Kerri-Anne Dooley, while the ALP candidate, Kass Hall, got 71 (35.5 per cent) votes. The Greens’ Will Simon recorded 22 votes (11 per cent), while One Nation’s Simon Salloum and Independent Gerard Saunders got 8 votes each (4 per cent).

In Brisbane, Transport Minister Bart Mellish looked likely to hold on to his seat of Aspley, with 81 (40.5 per cent) of the voters surveyed there giving him the tick, while his ALP colleague Jonty Bush (39.5 per cent) was also likely to retain her seat of Cooper.

In Capalaba, the LNP’s new candidate Russell Field appears to have made incredible ground on incumbent ALP member Don Brown.

Brown was just ahead with 84 (42 per cent) of the votes, compared with 77 (38.5 per cent) for Field.

The Greens’ Donna Weston got 23 votes (11.5 per cent), while One Nation’s David Schmid got 16 votes (8 per cent).

Originally published as Qld election day’s exit poll shockwaves: Labor surges, election too close to call