Qld election 2024: Exclusive exit poll reveals Labor smashed

Early voters across Queensland are turning against Labor in droves – suggesting the government is set for a devastating defeat when the election is held in 10 days.

The Courier-Mail’s exclusive exit polling spells bad news for Labor Premier Steven Miles (left) and a likely win to LNP leader David Crisafulli.

Labor is on track for a devastating defeat in 10 days, with Brisbane and regional Queensland turning against Premier Steven Miles and booting several senior ministers from their seats.

An exit poll of 1000 Queenslanders conducted by The Courier-Mail and its sister publications at early voting booths in 10 seats on Tuesday reveals a soaring primary vote for the LNP and trouble for Labor.

Across the 10 electorates, the LNP’s primary vote is at 48.2 per cent compared with Labor’s 30 per cent, the Greens’ 9.4 per cent and One Nation at 7.4 per cent.

The result is strikingly similar to September’s Newspoll, with the exception of a recorded 42 per cent primary vote for the LNP and lower vote for the Greens, likely due to a focus on regional Queensland.

The exit poll on day two of early voting indicates voters in the three Townsville seats, Mackay and several southeast Queensland electorates will remove the nine-year Labor government from office on October 26 as crime and cost of living dominate concerns.

Worryingly for Labor is the predicted loss of at least three ministers, including rising star Meaghan Scanlon and veteran Mick de Brenni.

At the 2020 state election, pre-poll results were almost identical to the final primary vote.

Mr Miles attempted to sandbag outer Brisbane seats in the first two weeks of the campaign before turning his attention to salvageable seats in regional Queensland.

His effort appears to have paid off in the inner city, where veteran minister Grace Grace and Deputy Speaker Joe Kelly appear likely to defeat the Greens.

However the 1000-voter exit poll indicates Queenslanders are seeking a change of government.

In the Gold Coast electorate of Gaven, Ms Scanlon will struggle to hold off the surging LNP and its TV-personality-turned-candidate Bianca Stone.

A poll of 100 early voters put Ms Stone’s primary vote at 47 per cent compared to Ms Scanlon’s 36 per cent – an 11-point fall on her 2020 result.

One Nation recorded a strong showing with 12 per cent ahead of the Greens’ five per cent.

It would be enough to see Ms Stone elected after preferences and be a devastating loss for Ms Scanlon, who is considered a future leader of the Labor Party.

The government is facing annihilation in its three Townsville seats with the LNP’s primary vote soaring to 56 per cent in Thuringowa.

It would spell almost certain defeat for Aaron Harper and neighbouring Labor MPs Les Walker and Resources Minister Scott Stewart in Townsville.

Labor’s primary vote in the seat of Thuringowa, according to the exit poll, is at 20 per cent.

It is just five points higher than Katter’s Australian Party, which remains a dominant force in central Queensland.

One Nation and an Independent have 4 per cent of the first-preference vote while the Greens hold 1 per cent.

Nathan O’Donnell was undecided on who he’d vote for with just minutes before he stepped into the polling booth, but said he wanted an improvement in the justice system with harder penalties for criminals.

“Once we get the crime rate sorted and get everything sorted with the crime, then we should be fine,” he said.

Labor is on track to lose Mackay for the first time in more than a century as the LNP’s primary vote hits a huge 58 per cent.

The opposition, buoyed by the retirement of current MP Julieanne Gilbert, is outpacing Labor’s 34 per cent primary vote.

One Nation is at 7 per cent.

The exit poll found 58 per cent of people were voting for the LNP candidate Nigel Dalton over Labor’s Belinda Hassan.

West Mackay resident Deborah Jackson said it was time for a change of government.

“Labor needs to get out,” she said.

“Change is as good as a holiday.”

The only bright spot for Mr Miles in regional Queensland appears to be Cairns, where popular Tourism Minister Michael Healy is locked in a tight battle with the LNP’s Yolonde Entsch.

An exit poll in Cairns put the LNP’s primary vote at 37 per cent, just one point clear of Labor’s 36 per cent.

The Greens are on 14 per cent and One Nation at 12 per cent.

Preferences from the minor parties are expected to be split between the majors, indicating a close race in the far north Queensland seat.

In Rockhampton the race is more uncertain with former mayor Margaret Strelow and a strong One Nation vote meaning it will likely come down to preferences.

Labor’s primary is at 22 per cent, behind the LNP’s 33 per cent.

Ms Strelow was polling 22 per cent, marginally ahead of One Nation on 18.

Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, whose pendulum predictions have been published since 1972, said more people were voting early for convenience.

“Early voting has come leaps and bounds over the years,” he said.

Asked whether early voting favoured the LNP or any particular party, Mr Mackerras said “I don’t believe it does”.

In Brisbane, powerful minister Ms Grace looks set to defeat the Greens and hold her McConnel electorate.

Ms Grace’s primary vote is at 31 per cent, according to the exit poll, well ahead of the Greens’ 21 per cent.

With preferences Ms Grace would likely overcome the LNP – which has a vote of 46 per cent – to retain the seat for a fourth straight term.

Teacher Alyson Fenton with daughter and first-time voter Eva Battams 18, at the early voting booth for McConnel in Fortitude Valley on Tuesday. Picture: Lachie Millard

It is a tighter race in Greenslopes, where the Greens are also attempting to unseat Labor’s Joe Kelly.

The 100-person exit poll put the Labor’s primary vote at 27 per cent, significantly ahead of the Greens’ 19 per cent.

For the Greens to win the seat they would first need to overtake Labor with a higher first preference vote.

The exit poll sets the scene for a tight two-party race between Labor and the LNP, which is polling at 52 per cent.

In Caloundra the “Palaszczuk pensioners” who elected Labor MP Jason Hunt in 2020 now appear to be returning to the LNP.

Labor’s primary vote is at 28 per cent compared to the LNP’s 50 per cent, according to the exit poll of 100 voters.

The Greens are reporting a strong 10 per cent while One Nation is at 8 per cent.

The Animal Justice party is at 1 per cent and Legalise Cannabis at 3 per cent.

Caloundra woman Lynn Chapman said essential services were in dire need of more cash.

“As far as transportation, the cost of living crisis, hospitals, doctors, all those things are in need of a lot of support,” she said.

Tracey Windley casts her vote at the early voting booth for McConnel in Fortitude Valley on Tuesday. Picture: Lachie Millard

Across the bay, 52 per cent of voters are leaning towards the Opposition above Labor.

In Oodgeroo and Redlands, Labor’s primary vote is 24 per cent, according to the exit poll of 100 early voters.

Mr Miles visited the bayside seat alongside Health Minister Shannon Fentiman last week to announce a $1.6bn expansion of Redlands Hospital, but it would not be finished until 2031-32.

The Greens are polling 11 per cent in Redlands while One Nation is at 4 per cent, Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis at 3 per cent.

First-time voter Eva Battams cast her first ballot on Tuesday.

She said she was unimpressed with Mr Crisafulli’s lack of clarity on abortion rights.

“He is just sneaky, he is hiding his true plan and doesn’t want to say it,” the 18-year-old university student said.

“He doesn’t want to tell the truth because he knows people won’t like it.”

Ms Battams’ mother, Alyson Fenton said she did not agree with Mr Crisafulli’s Adult Crime Adult Time policy.

“I think it sounds good but I think it is just too easy to say that. The issue goes a lot deeper than throwing these kids in jail,” Ms Fenton said.

“It is a bigger beast than that. Obviously what these kids have done is wrong, but the issue is deep seated, there is a lot more to it.”

Some 280,000 Queenslanders have pre-polled in the first two days, higher than in 2020.