Battle of Townsville: Leaked polling reveals KAP threat to LNP majority

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has staunchly ruled out forming a minority government with the Katter’s Australian Party after leaked polling showed the LNP are at risk of losing two key regional seats to the minor party.

Robbie Katter’s (right) party has derailed David Crisafulli’s LNP in Townsville.

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Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has staunchly ruled out forming a minority government with the Katter’s Australian Party after leaked polling showed the LNP are at risk of losing two key regional seats to the minor party.

The leaked Labor polling, seen by The Courier-Mail, shows Katter’s Australian Party winning two of three seats in Townsville – Mundingburra and Thuringowa – in a massive blow to Mr Crisafulli’s campaign to win majority government on Saturday.

It reveals a plunge in support for Labor has it running third behind the LNP and KAP.

If reflected on polling day, Labor’s preferences would flow to the minor North Queensland party, handing it the seat on a two-party basis.

The final Newspoll by The Australian shows Premier Steven Miles has closed the two-party preferred gap between Labor and the LNP but is still likely to lose the election.

The LNP still lead Labor 52.5 to 47.5 per cent. The LNP is relying on winning all three Townsville seats to form majority government on Saturday.

However losing Thuringowa and Mundingburra to KAP would force it to pick up electorates elsewhere or risk forming a minority government.

Labor’s leaked polling puts its MP Aaron Harper’s primary vote at 23.7 per cent in Thuringowa, compared with KAP’s 25.1 per cent and the LNP’s 33.4 per cent.

In Mundingburra, Labor MP Les Walker is polling at 24.9 per cent, behind KAP’s 27.4 per cent and the LNP’s 34.5 per cent.

Speaking on Sky News on the eve of the election, Mr Crisafulli accused the KAP of making a preference deal with Labor to win Townsville seats Thuringowa and Mundingburra.

“The fact that the Labor Party would push this polling to prop up the Katters, doesn’t that tell you everything you need to know, there’s been a deal that has been done,” he said.

Losing the electorates would force the LNP to pick up extra seats elsewhere, or else risk forming a minority government with the KAP.

However, Mr Crisafulli this morning declared he would not be dealing with the Katters if the LNP failed to reach a majority.

“Now we’ve ruled that out,” he said.

“They (Labor) are horse trading.

“They’re doing deals with people who are ideologically completely opposed to the things that we as Queenslanders want to see.”

Leader of the LNP David Crisafull. Picture Liam Kidston

Sky News host Peter Stefanovic then aired a text message response from KAP Leader Robbie Katter.

“They should have worried more about telling Queenslanders how they turn this data around, rather than just attacking the KAP,” Mr Katter said.

Mundingburra proved decisive in 1996, when a by-election helped deliver minority government to the LNP.

KAP leader Robbie Katter said he remained realistic about the challenge of winning the two seats.

“It’s very hard to beat these big guys, but every now and again things can change,” he said.

“We’re hoping it’s time for that for North Queensland.

“People are shaking their fist at the world and seeing South East Queensland getting everything and we’re not getting our fair share here.”

However, while KAP could win two Townsville-based seats, the same Labor poll predicts the minor party will lose Mirani in Mackay.

Katter’s Australian Party candidates Michael Pugh (Mundingburra) and Reuben Richardson (Thuringowa). Picture: Shae Beplate.

The LNP is polling at 40.8 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of KAP MP Stephen Andrew’s 21.4 per cent, Labor’s 19.7 per cent and One Nation’s 16.5 per cent.

In Noosa, Independent MP Sandy Bolton is eyeing victory with a first-preference vote of 36.9 per cent. Former mayor-turned-LNP-candidate Clare Stewart is at 42 per cent.

Despite Labor’s primary vote sitting at a dismal 9.1 per cent, its preferences would likely be enough to re-elect Ms Bolton.

Mr Crisafulli has promised to make no deals with minor parties but would instead test support on the floor of Parliament.

In Mundingburra, disillusioned major party voter Joanne Alice is supporting KAP for the first time due to its signature policy, castle law.

“I want to feel safe in my home and I want to know I’ll be protected in a court of law,” she said.

Castle law would allow homeowners to use force to defend themselves from intruders.

The proposal was shelved when Parliament dissolved this month.

Another Townsville resident, Tim Fedorowytsch, said his key reasons for voting KAP was crime.

“Between conservatives and the Labor Party, you can fit a piece of cigarette paper between them,” he said.

“They’re just as bad as one and other.”

The Premier, also speaking on Sky News on Friday morning, urged voters to not turn their back on Labor and focus their attention on the future, rather than Labor’s decade-long past under former Premier Annastacia Palazacuk.

“You’ve also got to ask yourself every election, what’s the risk of change?” he said.

He refused to be drawn on whether his campaign had been hindered by Ms Palaszcuk’s delayed resignation.

“There’s not too much longer that I would have wanted to be in the job without having won an election in my own right,” he said.

Asked if he would stay on as Labor leader in the event of a loss, Mr Miles said that would depend on the election outcome and “what my colleagues think”.