Battle of Townsville: Leaked polling reveals KAP threat to LNP majority

Leaked internal Labor polling shows the minor Katter Party set to pick up two crucial seats the LNP needs to form government.

Robbie Katter’s (right) party has derailed David Crisafulli’s LNP in Townsville.

David Crisafulli’s campaign to win majority government on Saturday has been dealt a massive blow, as leaked Labor polling predicts a major upset in Townsville.

The Labor polling, seen by The Courier-Mail, shows Katter’s Australian Party winning two of three seats in Townsville: Mundingburra and Thuringowa.

It reveals a plunge in support for Labor has it running third behind the LNP and KAP.

If reflected on polling day, Labor’s preferences would flow to the minor North Queensland party, handing it the seat on a two-party basis.

The LNP is relying on winning all three Townsville seats to form majority government on Saturday.

However losing Thuringowa and Mundingburra to KAP would force it to pick up electorates elsewhere or risk forming a minority government.

Labor’s leaked polling puts its MP Aaron Harper’s primary vote at 23.7 per cent in Thuringowa, compared with KAP’s 25.1 per cent and the LNP’s 33.4 per cent.

In Mundingburra, Labor MP Les Walker is polling at 24.9 per cent, behind KAP’s 27.4 per cent and the LNP’s 34.5 per cent.

Mundingburra also proved decisive in 1996, when a by-election helped deliver minority government to the LNP.

KAP leader Robbie Katter said he remained realistic about the challenge of winning the two seats.

“It’s very hard to beat these big guys, but every now and again things can change,” he said.

“We’re hoping it’s time for that for North Queensland.

“People are shaking their fist at the world and seeing South East Queensland getting everything and we’re not getting our fair share here.”

However, while KAP could win two Townsville-based seats, the same Labor poll predicts the minor party will lose Mirani in Mackay.

Katter’s Australian Party candidates Michael Pugh (Mundingburra) and Reuben Richardson (Thuringowa). Picture: Shae Beplate.

The LNP is polling at 40.8 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of KAP MP Stephen Andrew’s 21.4 per cent, Labor’s 19.7 per cent and One Nation’s 16.5 per cent.

In Noosa, Independent MP Sandy Bolton is eyeing victory with a first-preference vote of 36.9 per cent.

Former mayor-turned-LNP-candidate Clare Stewart is at 42 per cent.

Despite Labor’s primary vote sitting at a dismal 9.1 per cent, its preferences would likely be enough to re-elect Ms Bolton.

Mr Crisafulli has promised to make no deals with minor parties but would instead test support on the floor of Parliament.

In Mundingburra, disillusioned major party voter Joanne Alice is supporting KAP for the first time due to its signature policy, castle law.

“I want to feel safe in my home and I want to know I’ll be protected in a court of law,” she said.

Castle law would allow homeowners to use force to defend themselves from intruders.

The proposal was shelved when Parliament dissolved this month.

Another Townsville resident, Tim Fedorowytsch, said his key reasons for voting KAP was crime.

“Between conservatives and the Labor Party, you can fit a piece of cigarette paper between them,” he said.

“They’re just as bad as one and other.”