Newspoll: David Crisafulli squanders lead but Queensland LNP on track for knife-edge win
David Crisafulli is poised to become Queensland’s next premier in a knife-edge win, squandering a decisive lead in a campaign derailed by his small target strategy and attacks on the LNP’s stance on abortion | LATEST NEWSPOLL
David Crisafulli is poised to become Queensland’s next premier in a knife-edge win, squandering a decisive lead in a campaign derailed by attacks on the Liberal National Party’s stance on abortion and his small-target strategy.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian in the lead up to Saturday’s state election shows a change of government after almost a decade of Labor in power.
The opposition leads Premier Steven Miles’s Labor government 52.5 to 47.5 per cent after preferences. If the predicted 5.7 per cent swing were uniform across the state, the LNP would win 13 Labor seats and secure a two-seat majority in the 93-electorate parliament.
Mr Crisafulli may be forced to form minority government with the support of crossbenchers, including the Katter’s Australian Party which currently has four MPs and may win more seats off Labor in regional Queensland.
The poll reveals the LNP leader has lost the support of some voters during the four-week election campaign, with a Newspoll in mid-September showing the LNP led Labor, on a two-party-preferred basis, by 55 to 45 per cent and that the opposition would have won a comfortable majority.
The latest Newspoll shows Mr Miles’s personal support has slightly improved, and he is ahead in preferred premier stakes, leading Mr Crisafulli 45-42 per cent, after trailing him 39-46 per cent in the previous Newspoll.
Mr Crisafulli’s popularity as leader has fallen and 46 per cent of voters are now dissatisfied with his performance, up nine points since last month, and 43 per cent are satisfied, down from 49 per cent.
Conducted from last Friday to Thursday, the latest poll of 1151 Queenslanders shows Labor’s primary vote has lifted three points, to 33 per cent, while support for the LNP has plateaued at 42 per cent.
The boost in Labor’s support has come at the expense of the Greens, which have fallen one point to 11 per cent, and other minor parties, with their support dropping from 8 to 6 per cent. One Nation’s primary vote has remained steady at 8 per cent.
But the momentum towards Mr Miles and Labor appears to have come too late, with 600,000 already casting their votes before polling day – and a further 700,000 having requested postal votes.
Mr Crisafulli has been criticised for running a small-target strategy, with a focus on tackling youth crime, and for failing to explain his position on central issues such as nuclear energy, the Brisbane 2032 OIympic stadiums, pumped hydro and, crucially, abortion.
The Opposition Leader has been dogged for three weeks by questions about abortion laws – Mr Crisafulli and the majority of his partyroom voted against decriminalisation in 2018 – and whether an LNP government would allow MPs a conscience vote to roll back the laws.
During the campaign, KAP leader Robbie Katter flagged he would introduce a private member’s bill to repeal or tighten access to the procedure.
Mr Crisafulli declared he was pro-choice only in the final leaders’ debate this week, buckling under the pressure of a massive union-led campaign and ill-discipline by his own MPs and candidates.
Queensland’s unions have spent more than $1m on television, social media, and leaflet drops accusing the LNP of having secret plans to cut public service numbers and repeal abortion laws.
Newspoll shows 11 per cent of Queenslanders – including one in five 18 to 34 year olds – nominated abortion as one of their top two issues. But cost-of-living remains foremost in the minds of voters, with 74 per cent of voters nominating it as one of their top two issues.
The LNP’s focus, crime, is less important than in the March Newspoll, but is still in the top two issues for 42 per cent of Queenslanders.
Labor has run a big-spending campaign dominated by cost-of-living measures, racking up an extra $4bn in debt for programs including promising $1.4bn for free school lunches for every state primary school student if re-elected.
In 2020, Labor won its third consecutive term in power under then premier Annastacia Palaszczuk with a two-party-preferred result of 53.2 per cent to the LNP’s 46.8 per cent. Mr Miles took over the leadership last December, after Ms Palaszczuk’s resignation. Senior party figures Peter Beattie and union boss Gary Bullock declared earlier in the campaign that she should have left sooner.
Labor has held government in Queensland for 30 of the past 35 years.
On Thursday, both leaders launched eleventh-hour seat blitzes and Mr Miles said his plan to hit 36 electorates in 36 hours showed he was competitive. “(My aim is to) win 50 per cent plus one … win as many votes as I can, talk to as many Queenslanders as I can and expose David Crisafulli as much as I can,” he said.
Mr Crisafulli went to 18 electorates on Thursday, including visiting electorates with pro-life LNP candidates, including former senator Amanda Stoker in Oodgeroo.
“If you want change, you have to vote for that change, and only a majority LNP government will deliver that change, anything else will deliver chaos,” Mr Crisafulli said.
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