Newspoll: David Crisafulli poised to deliver majority government for LNP in Queensland

David Crisafulli is set to return the LNP to majority government in Queensland for the first time in a decade, and inflict a brutal defeat on the third-term Labor government, Newspoll shows.

Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli. Picture: Liam Kidston

David Crisafulli is poised to ­return the Liberal National Party to majority government in Queensland for the first time in a decade, entering the state election campaign on track to inflict a brutal defeat on the third-term Labor government.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Weekend Australian on the eve of the campaign proper shows the LNP has leapt 10 points clear of Labor – 55 to 45 per cent after preferences.

If the predicted 8.2 per cent swing against Steven Miles’s Labor government were uniform across the state on October 26, it would deliver the LNP a comfortable majority of 55 seats in the 93-electorate parliament.

Despite Mr Miles this week declaring he could still win back support of voters who had turned against Labor since the Covid-19 pandemic, the News­poll results suggest the ALP would lose 20 seats, including five held by ministers, reducing it to just 31 seats in the single-chamber parliament.

Newspoll results: click to enlarge.  

The Newspoll will be devastating for Mr Miles, who has ­failed to lift Labor’s core support above the 30 per cent ­recorded in March, despite dishing out $3.7bn in cost-of-living giveaways.

Primary support for the LNP has surged under Mr Crisafulli’s leadership, growing from 35.9 per cent at the 2020 election to 42 per cent.

Support for the ALP still remains above the 26.7 per cent primary vote mustered by Anna Bligh’s government at the wipe-out 2012 election when Labor was reduced to seven seats.

With Labor holding power in Queensland for 30 of the past 35 years, 57 per cent of voters ­believed it was time to “give someone else a go’’, while only 29 per cent of those surveyed ­believed Labor ­deserved to be re-elected. Labor strategists had banked on the big-­spending June budget, which included $1000 energy ­rebates, a 20 per cent cut to car registration fees and 50c public transport fares, to give the government a boost in the polls.

But with billions of dollars in handouts failing to translate to an uptick in support, Labor will now turn its attention to mitigating losses in greater Brisbane, where it holds 34 of 42 seats.

Brisbane, where Labor built its fortress under Wayne Goss in the 1990s, remains Mr Miles’s stronghold, with 45 per cent of voters ­believing he is a better premier compared with Mr Crisafulli at 40 per cent.

On a statewide basis, the LNP leader continues to lead Mr Miles on the key determinant of preferred premier, 46 per cent to 39 per cent, with 15 per cent ­uncommitted.

The comprehensive poll, ­conducted from September 12-18 and based on a sample of 1047 statewide voters, shows Mr Miles has enjoyed a three-point lift in his approval rating since March to 41 per cent, with his dissatisfaction also rising two points to 51 per cent.

Mr Crisafulli’s dissatisfaction rating has surged four points in the same period to 37 per cent, with his approval lifting from 47 to 49 per cent. Despite a comfortable lead in the polls, voters remain somewhat sceptical about Mr Crisafulli, with 47 per cent of voters surveyed “not confident” that the LNP is ready to govern.

The 45-year-old father of two, who has been dubbed by Labor as the ­“invisible man”, has come under increasing attacks over his small-target policy ­approach. With only 23 days until early voting begins, Mr Crisafulli is yet to articulate how he will meet emission reduction targets the LNP voted for, fulfil his promises of fewer ambulances ramped and more homes built faster, or detail how his government would tackle the state’s mounting debt, due to reach $172bn by mid-2028.

This week, Mr Crisafulli said the LNP’s tax plan – promised two years ago – would not be released until all campaign announcements had been made.

“Debt will always be lower under the LNP, and our taxation plan will be very clear before the election, and Queenslanders will see how important fiscal discipline is to us, as is repairing services,” he said.

Spruiking cost-of-living relief this week, Mr Miles insisted Labor could still prevail on October 26.

“I think we can win, and I’m fighting every single day to win,” he said. “Every election in Queensland is hard.

“I know David Crisafulli thinks this one will be easy … They’re taking this election for granted and I think that’s a pretty dangerous thing to do.”

A huge 28 per cent of voters plan to cast their ballots for a minor party or independent candidate, with popular support for the Greens at 12 per cent and ­Pauline Hanson’s One Nation at 8 per cent. Support for the Greens has risen just 2.5 percentage points from the 2020 election, and may not be enough to translate to more seats in state parliament. The minor party currently holds two seats, based around Brisbane’s inner suburbs.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

If the swing identified by News­poll was applied on a uniform basis statewide, Labor ministers Meaghan Scanlon, Bart Mellish, Nikki Boyd and Michael Healy would lose their seats. Retiring Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath’s seat of Redcliffe, north of Brisbane, would also fall to the LNP. The trio of Townsville seats, where youth crime has increasingly dominated public debate, would also be lost, along with Mackay, which has been continuously held by Labor since 1915 when it was won by William Forgan Smith.

All five seats won up by Labor at the 2020 pandemic election with the support of “Palaszczuk’s pensioners” – Pumicestone, Caloundra, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg and Nicklin – would also fall.