Action call on population shift as Tasmania’s growth picks up pace

Tasmania’s population could hit 650,000 within 30 years according to projections published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The population of Hobart is expected to grow by about 100,000 people by 2066 under modelling from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

TASMANIA’S population could hit the magic 650,000 mark within 30 years according to projections published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Demographer Lisa Denny, from the University of Tasmania, says it is time to plan to cope with the growth because the composition of Tasmania’s population will change.

While the number of births will drop and the number of deaths increase, more people will come from interstate and overseas and the state will need houses and jobs for them.

“There will be natural population decline from 2022 and from there all growth will come from migration,” Dr Denny said.

“With that will come demand for infrastructure and services. All policy makers need to factor in the change in population composition. We will cope as a state and a capital city if we plan.”

The Government set a population target of 650,000 by 2050 when it came into office. Under the ABS’s highest projection scenario, the state could reach that ahead of time, having more than 640,000 residents by 2042 and 744,000 by 2066.

LIBS TO CHASE SKILLED MIGRANTS IN POPULATION PUSH

Demographer Lisa Denny says future population growth will come from migration. Picture: MATT THOMPSON

However, demographers look to the ABS’s median figures because they are the most reliable.

Under that scenario, Tasmania’s current population of 522,300 would swell to 559,000 within 10 years. By 2042 the state would be home to 577,000 people and 581,000 by 2066.

That population growth will not be shared around Tasmania with the concentration of growth in the capital.

POPULATION PROBLEM ONLY GETTING WORSE

The population of Greater Hobart is projected to grow in each forecast scenario.

Currently, Greater Hobart has a population of 229,100 and could swell by between 90,450 and 102,070 by 2066 under the ABS median forecast.

And the proportion of Tasmanians who live in the city will climb as well from its current 44 per cent of the state’s total population to 46 per cent in 2027 and between 55 per cent and 57 per cent in 2066.

The statistics add weight to the RACT’s push for Hobart to have a mobility vision to tackle the city’s increasing traffic congestion issues.

RACT AND UTAS INITIATIVE TO TACKLE TRAFFIC WOES

RACT Group CEO Harvey Lennon said Greater Hobart’s current transport network was at capacity.

“The projected population increase, together with increasing tourist numbers, is expected to further compound the traffic congestion issues we are currently experiencing,” he said.

RACT Group chief executive Harvey Lennon. Picture: CHRIS KIDD

“We need to plan now for the significant changes ahead. Without major change we can expect to see increasing delays and issues throughout the Greater Hobart network that will impact on the lifestyles of people living in our city.”

In 2016-2017 there were 4600 overseas arrivals and 2400 overseas departures in Tasmania resulting in a net overseas migration gain of 2200 people. At the same time, 11,500 people left for the mainland and 13,000 moved to Tasmania.

The ABS says Tasmania will continue to have the highest median age in the nation with it rising from 42.2 years to 44.7 years or even 49.6 years.

State Growth Minister Peter Gutwein said the Government supported sustainable population growth.

“An increasing population will underpin growth in our economy, and help strengthen our finances, enabling greater investment in essential infrastructure,” he said.