Overseas migration driving Australia’s 2066 population boom, ABS

Melbourne will be a city of 12 million and Sydney will double its population under the latest growth forecast from the ABS, which also reveals when Australia will be a nation of 50 million people. (And it’s sooner than you probably think.)

Australia’s population could hit 49 million within 50 years, fuelled in part by the addition of up to 13.5 million migrants according to the latest growth forecasts.

The ABS’s latest population projection figures come just days after Prime Minister Scott Morrison flagged the nation’s migrant intake could be reduced by up to 30,000 people per year amid concerns about congestion and pressure on services in the nation’s largest cities.

Under the highest projections for population growth, Australia’s population could jump from 25 million this year to 29.3 million within a decade and to 49.2 million by 2066.

Scott Morrison recently announced Australia’s migration intake could be cut by up to 30,000 people. Picture: AAP Image/Brendan Esposito

Overseas migration will boost the population by 13.5 million under the highest growth scenario, while the natural increase through births and deaths would add an extra 10.7 million people.

Melbourne would overtake Sydney as the country’s biggest city within 50 years, growing to more than 12 million under the highest growth forecast, while Sydney would surpass 11 million, doubling its current population of 5.1 million.

Brisbane’s population would increase to almost 6 million, while Adelaide would grow to more than 2 million and Perth would hit more than 4 million.

Under the ABS’s medium projection, the nation’s population would still hit 42.6 million by 2066, driven by the addition of 11.3 million overseas migrants.

Melbourne could overtake Sydney as the nation’s biggest city. Picture: Supplied

Prime Minister Morrison yesterday said he expected the nation’s immigration cap would be lowered in next year’s budget.

He said the number would be determined through a “fair dinkum process” with the states and territories, who have been asked to outline the “population carrying capacity” of their existing and planned infrastructure and services ahead of next month’s Council of Australian Governments (COAG).

Mr Morrison on Monday flagged the need for the immigration rate to be reduced, potentially by 30,000 from the current rate of 190,000.

“Australians in our biggest cities are concerned about population. They are saying: enough, enough, enough,” he said at a forum in Sydney.

“The roads are clogged, the buses and trains are full. The schools are taking no more enrolments. I hear what you are saying. I hear you loud and clear.

“We need to improve how we manage population growth in this country.”

Overseas migration will boost the population by 13.5 million under the highest growth scenario. Picture: AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts

Labor’s immigration spokesman Shayne Neumann has slammed the plan as a “cheap trick” designed to get a headline.

“(Mr Morrison) locked in Australia’s annual permanent migration intake at 190,000 during his time as immigration minister and then as treasurer,” Mr Neumann said.

“If he was wrong about that, he should explain why he was wrong.”