Scott Morrison books in economic check-ups for regions

The Productivity Commission will review the impacts of a 2050 net-zero-emissions target on regions under a cabinet safeguard.

Scott Morrison says ‘we will track what our emissions are but we will also track what our economic performance is’. Picture: Bianca De Marchi

The Productivity Commission will conduct five-year reviews assessing the economic impacts of a 2050 net-zero-emissions target on regional and rural communities under a climate change safeguard mechanism adopted by cabinet on Monday night.

The Australian can reveal that Scott Morrison and the Nationals agreed on a permanent review process – with the first assessment to be delivered in 2023 – under a key plank of the deal struck with the junior Coalition partner on the government’s long-term emissions-reduction strategy.

The Prime Minister told The Australian the five-yearly review would provide transparency and accountability to the net-zero plan he intended to take to the Glasgow UN climate change summit next week and provide reassurance to regional and rural communities.

The accountability mechanism, which will be tabled in parliament, will not be a review trigger for the government’s emissions-reduction commitments.

“It will be a safeguard for rural and regional Australia and it will be incumbent on the government to be delivering on the economic improvements that are part of this plan,” Mr Morrison said.

“We are very confident about that. This will be a real-time ‘actual lived experiences’ assessment by the Productivity Commission. We will track what our emissions are but we will also track what our economic performance is.

Barnaby Joyce says he supports the ‘process’ of adopting a target of net-zero emissions by 2050 but attacked Labor’s plan to enshrine net zero in legislation. Picture: Gary Ramage

“Since 2005, there has been a 20 per cent reduction in our emissions and a 40 per cent growth in our economy. And we should be tracking both of these things.”

Mr Morrison said the mechanism would ensure there was ­“accountability back to rural and regional Australians on what we are proposing to do”.

“We are happy to back in our plan — that it will be a positive for rural and regional Australians,” the Prime Minister said.

The Australian understands that a 2030 target was never part of negotiations between Mr Morrison and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, with the government ­remaining committed to its existing medium-term emissions-­reduction pledge.

Details of the safeguard mechanism emerged as Coalition MPs on Monday questioned whether Mr Joyce could credibly sell the net-zero emissions policy after the Deputy Prime Minister warned that putting the target in law would decimate the coal industry in central Queensland and the NSW Hunter Valley.

Liberal and Nationals MPs said they were concerned about the ­authenticity of Mr Joyce’s support for a 2050 target after a damaging leak from the Nationals partyroom meeting revealed he was personally opposed to the policy.

Mr Joyce said he supported the “process” of adopting a target of net-zero emissions by 2050 but attacked Labor’s plan to enshrine net zero in legislation, claiming it would “outlaw” central Queensland and the Hunter Valley. “They will outlaw the miners because they have said they are coming forward with legislation, that is (Labor’s) policy,” Mr Joyce said.

Resources Minister Keith Pitt — an opponent of the 2050 target — was elevated to cabinet on Monday under the deal struck between Mr Morrison and Mr Joyce, leaving the Nationals now holding five out of 24 cabinet spots.

Opposition climate change spokesman Chris Bowen attacked the government’s credibility on the target of net zero by 2050.

“The second most senior ­person in the government, the most senior National, doesn’t ­actually believe in the policy that they’ve just implemented so they can’t be trusted to implement it,” Mr Bowen said.

He condemned the government for refusing to publicly release economic modelling on the net-zero target given Mr Morrison “campaigned day after day at the last election about the cost of climate action”.

Former Nationals leader ­Michael McCormack said it was a “matter for Barnaby Joyce” to ­assess whether he was the best person to sell the policy on behalf of the party. Mr Joyce successfully challenged Mr McCormack for the leadership in June, partially over concerns the former deputy prime minister was allowing the Liberals to dictate the Coalition’s climate change agenda.

“I’m more of a team player than others and, while I respect the partyroom’s view on June 21, these sorts of things don’t escape the attention of others. The irony does not escape the attention of others,” Mr McCormack said.

“And those people who are supposedly against where we have landed, that doesn’t escape the attention of others either.”

The Australian can reveal the Nationals have received a guarantee that no action would be taken in pursuing a US-style methane target, which could have an impact on livestock farming and natural gas extraction.

The Nationals deal with the Liberals will be accompanied by a long list of “economic infrastructure” in regional Australia, including commitments on the Inland Rail project and highway upgrades. Senior government sources said announcements tied to net zero guarantees would be prepared ahead of the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December and closer to the federal election, which was increasingly likely to be held in May.

Mr Morrison will unveil a ­series of climate change packages ahead of the COP26 summit, which begins on Sunday, including updated projections showing Australia would exceed its Paris 2030 emissions target, the Future Fuels electric vehicle strategy and an updated technology investment road map statement.

Nationals senator Matt Canavan — who leads a rump of country party MPs including George Christensen, Llew O’Brien, Sam McMahon and David Gillespie who rejected net zero by 2050 — said more climate ambition would mean “net-zero economic development for our nation”.

Senator Canavan has vowed to campaign against the National and Liberal Party positions on net zero at the election.

Writing in The Australian, Senator Canavan asked: “Is the point of the Liberal and Nationals parties to deliver Labor and Green policies but just at a slower pace?”

With the government facing pressure from right-wing minor parties at the next election, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson said the Nationals had “rolled over” on rural and regional ­Australia.

“It’s a shame because I don’t agree with what the Prime ­Minister is doing; it’s going to ­destroy our country,” Senator Hanson said.