Barnaby Joyce is two-faced, and both lack the conviction Scott Morrison needs

 

Barnaby Joyce is now a politician with two identities — as Nationals leader he supports net zero at 2050 but within the party room he opposes it.

Joyce’s credibility has been ruined within hours of the Nationals’ partyroom decision. Climate change policy is nothing without conviction and Joyce has no conviction.

He doesn’t believe in net zero at 2050 yet this is his election banner as Nationals leader. The National Party has pulled off a spectacular own goal – it has crossed the Rubicon to enter the new battle for net zero but has disarmed itself in the process.

Scott Morrison has secured a historic victory bringing a Coalition majority behind the net-zero target. Picture: Gary Ramage

It will invite cynicism and contempt. Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer will be empowered.

Scott Morrison has secured a historic victory bringing a Coalition majority behind the net-zero target yet the antics of Joyce and the Nationals have undermined the electoral traction Morrison hoped to secure.

The Nationals are split nearly down the middle on net zero. Joyce delivered what Morrison needed – a partyroom majority. But Joyce wants the best of all worlds.

He wants to be a leader and a rebel. He stays true to the Coalition but reveals his political heart as anti-net zero. He wants to align with Morrison’s election strategy but salvage his partyroom leadership by dumping on the new policy.

This is unlikely to work. Credible reports say partyroom expressions were only 12-9 for net zero and that besides Joyce, ministers Keith Pitt and Bridget McKenzie spoke against the policy change. That’s three out of the expanded five National cabinet ministers actually opposing the policy the cabinet is endorsing.

The Nationals came to a fork in the road and went both ways. That’s smart? No, it’s dumb. Hanson and Palmer have been gifted their campaign narratives. An energised Hanson said the Nationals had “rolled over” and that net zero would “destroy our country”.

Morrison had told Joyce that he would make net zero at 2050 government policy and take the decision to Glasgow anyway. The choice the Nationals faced was cutting a deal for net zero or repudiating Morrison, and that probably meant busting up the Coalition. The Liberals thought Joyce was trying to facilitate the great policy transition but they missed the point. He played a double game.

The Nationals are confused and divided about their best election tactic on climate change. While Joyce and the cabinet ministers must toe the Morrison line, Queensland’s Matt Canavan went on the offensive early on Monday, branding it a “bad deal” that meant higher taxes, more red tape and more government intrusions into your life.

How many National MPs or National candidates might follow Canavan and campaign against net zero?

Matt Canavan went on the offensive, branding the climate decision a ‘bad deal’. Picture: Gary Ramage

Joyce’s unconvincing efforts on Monday in the media and in parliament — trying to explain himself — contrasted with Canavan’s onslaught. The difference was obvious — one spoke from conviction and the other couldn’t.

It finished in a scramble but Morrison has got his new climate change policy — without a leadership crisis, without a Liberal Party revolt and without severing the Coalition. The break from the past is decisive. But this time the trauma erupted in the National Party.

Have no doubt, Australia is on a new trajectory. The government and Labor are united on net zero at 2050 and, for Australia, there is no going back. As for the Nationals, who knows where they might finish if they lose the election?

The government’s problem now is managing the Joyce duality. In the suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne the campaign line from Labor and the Greens will say “don’t believe Morrison on 2050, just remember Joyce”, while in the regions the opponents of net zero will brand Joyce a sellout who failed to stand up for his convictions. There is a lot more trouble to come.