Details of net-zero deal are needed now to win support

Scott Morrison deserves credit for holding his nerve and delivering a net-zero target for 2050 in co-operation with the Nationals. The agreement will defuse but not eliminate the delicate domestic and international politics at play ahead of the Glasgow climate summit next week. For credibility, details of what has been promised to safeguard the interests of rural constituents and workers vulnerable to a low-carbon-emissions transition must be made public as soon as possible. Only then will voters in the city and the bush be able to judge whether the Prime Minister has overshot, underdelivered or got things just right.

Claims of reluctance by Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce and rumblings of continued dissent from Queensland senator Matthew Canavan are to be expected given the history of the issue. But, as Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Joyce has shown a welcome maturity in being able to see the bigger picture. Wavering Nationals are entitled to feel nervous about how things will play out, particularly in Queensland. But once details of the plan are made public, they must reflect on the wisdom of continuing to play the role of spoiler. The results of Newspoll on Monday have again proven the well understood maxim that in politics, disunity is death. To recover, the Coalition must be able to demonstrate that it has struck a good deal on net zero with a sensible plan to get there. It needs to show a deal that puts the nation alongside its allies and leaves the economy open to financial opportunity that change can bring. Equally, the government must be able to show it has not bet the house on an ambition that has a high potential cost for regional workers and the budget, and an unreasonably low prospect of success. Elevating Resources Minister Keith Pitt back to cabinet under the net-zero deal is a sensible decision.

For Mr Morrison, delivering a net-zero by 2050 target is the culmination of a carefully crafted transition that has been evident throughout the past year. Together with Energy Minister Angus Taylor and Josh Frydenberg, the Prime Minister has been able to guide the Coalition towards the centre on a policy that has been a diabolical challenge for leaders on both sides. For credibility, the government must quickly release full details of what has been agreed. Rural constituents will be swift to assess whether or not they have been protected. City voters will also determine if the government has paid too much or been duplicitous in its negotiations for a net-zero target. The challenge now is for Anthony Albanese to hold his team together as it finds the best way to respond to what is a new reality. The ALP’s initial claim has been that the government has stolen its climate policy. This indicates that Mr Albanese intends to maintain his party’s small-target strategy on the issue ahead of the election. But the ALP will be under intense pressure to do more.

Among climate action advocates, the response to the Coalition deal has been to state that it misses the real target of what will be done by 2030. One thing is clear: the sooner the Glasgow conference is ended, the better. Ahead of the once-postponed meeting, the issue of climate change action has taken on a global political urgency that, if history is any guide, is destined to deliver mostly disappointment. This is particularly so, given the difficulty securing climate change action, even by countries most vocal in their support for it. Joe Biden is struggling to get domestic political support for his climate ambitions despite claiming a mandate for change on the issue. China has linked co-operation on climate change to capitulation by the West on a range of unrelated and intractable concerns. Away from net zero and phasing out coal, the issue likely to dominate the Glasgow agenda is the delivery of the trillions of dollars needed for poor nations to build a future without the use of fossil fuels. By declaring a net-zero target for 2050, Australia has wisely maintained a seat at the table but declined to go all-in. This is a pragmatic course for a government aware that it was never likely to satisfy those seeking a maximalist outcome.

For Mr Morrison, striking a deal on net zero has been about firming up the centre and no doubt hoping the ALP can be forced back out to the fringe. When the dust settles from Glasgow, the parameters of what to do next will be more clear. Until then, the Coalition must find the discipline to settle on the agreement that has been reached and properly communicate why it is a good deal worth doing.