Having the Labor Party and the Coalition both committed to a net-zero carbon emissions target by 2050 is not the end of the climate wars. Far from it.
We just have new battlegrounds and new battle cries.
Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese now face real tests of character, policy development and election campaigning over climate change, which will be vital to their survival.
The social, economic and geographic divisions over climate change present the same grave problems for both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader as they face trying to sell conflicting messages to different electorates.
Morrison argues that it’s not about “when you cut emissions, it’s about how” and that voters “can’t trust Labor to manage the economy” and cut emissions.
Albanese argues you “can’t trust” a Coalition that doesn’t believe in it to cut emissions.
While Morrison has achieved a Coalition compromise from the centre of the climate change debate unlike his predecessors, it is only the beginning of months of political trial as he tries to bring together the divided Coalition tribes at war with each other.
His challenge is all the greater because he is a minority parliamentary leader who must win seats just to hold government, and he has to convince progressive Liberals that he’s genuine about cutting carbon emissions and conservative Coalition supporters that he can protect their jobs and keep down the everyday costs of power and food.
He risks losing metropolitan votes on the left to Labor, Greens and independents and rural and regional votes on the right to minor parties and independents who oppose the 2050 target.
Albanese has wasted no time in nailing his political response to the Coalition’s final commitment to a net-zero carbon emissions target by 2050: if the targets are the same, why vote for a government that doesn’t believe in it.
Given Barnaby Joyce as Nationals’ leader doesn’t have his heart in net zero and committed only on Monday to the process of compromise and “going forward as a Coalition government”, there is plenty of room to exploit a lack of genuine commitment.
Albanese conceded weeks ago that Morrison would get a compromise on a net-zero 2050 target with the Nationals, and a big points of difference between the Coalition and Labor would be equalised. On Monday, he declared: “I’m very pleased that the Coalition have adopted Labor’s position of net zero by 2050.”
It’s a political approach with its own two targets: the first, the majority of Liberal-leaning voters who want the Coalition to commit to a 2050 target at the Glasgow climate change conference and, the second, the Coalition conservative base who do not want any commitment.
On the one hand, Albanese is telling those who support net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and who are prepared to pay more to achieve it that Labor has been there all along, is genuine and will legislate the 2050 target.
On the other hand, he is thrusting into the face of the Coalition’s conservative base that Morrison is going to the election next year “with Labor’s policy”. Honey for the progressive inner-city voters and vinegar for the conservative regional and rural voters.
Albanese has also worked to undermine the Nationals’ opposition in the past week as being a “pantomime” and a result they don’t believe in as he challenges Morrison to “spin” the argument that the Labor and Coalition climate commitments are different.
This is the challenge for Morrison, and it hinges on arguing that the Coalition doesn’t just have a target but a “plan” to reach the 2050 target that protects mining and farming.
He told parliament Labor wants to “sign a blank check on climate change and wants to get Australians to pay for it”.
Morrison is arguing that now that the 2050 commitment is the same, the point of difference is how that target will be reached.
With the focus on the Glasgow climate change conference that Morrison leaves for on Thursday, the 2050 target is s the centre of the debate, but as the election approaches, it will the shorter-term 2030 targets that will assume greater importance.
The climate wars aren’t over. There are just new battlegrounds.
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