Election 2022: Bass to fall to Labor, Braddon sticking with Coalition

Labor is on track to win back the marginal Tasmanian seat of Bass, but will fail in Braddon, YouGov polling shows.

Labor’s candidate for Bass, Ross Hart. Picture: Liam Kidston

Labor is on track to win back the marginal Tasmanian seat of Bass from the Liberals but will fail to reclaim neighbouring Braddon, YouGov polling for The Australian suggests.

In Bass, which takes in Launceston and the northeast, the poll shows Labor ahead of the Liberals 51 to 49 on a two-party preferred basis.

This would see Labor candidate and former MP Ross Hart, a local lawyer, elected at the expense of the woman who defeated him in 2019, Liberal farmer and incumbent Bridget Archer.

Labor’s first preference vote in Bass is 36 per cent (up from 34.7 at the 2019 election), the Liberals on 39 (down from 42.3 in 2019), the Greens slightly up on 11, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation on 3 the United Australia Party on 1 and others 10.

While always on a knife-edge, the loss of Ms Archer would be a major blow to the Liberals, with the outspoken party moderate said to be widely respected and previous polling putting her ahead of Mr Hart.

Bass, the Coalition’s most marginal seat, held by Ms Archer with a margin of just .4 per cent, has changed a dizzying eight times since 1993.

It was last held by the same party for more than two terms by the Liberals’ Warwick Smith from 1984 to 1993.

In Braddon, a generally more conservative seat that takes in Tasmania’s Northwest and West Coast, incumbent Liberal Gavin Pearce fares better, leading Labor challenger Chris Lynch 52 to 48 on a 2PP basis.

Scott Morrison and Bass MP Bridget Archer on the campaign trail. Picture: Alex Treacy

In terms of first preferences, a large field, including several prominent independents, contributes to an 18 per cent “Other” vote and a decline in the major parties’ primary support.

In the sprawling electorate of Lyons, the poll dashes Liberal hopes of picking up the seat it felt it should have won from Labor in 2019.

The polling has incumbent Labor MP Brian Mitchell ahead of Liberal challenger Susie Bower 54-46 on 2PP.

In Hobart-based Clark, the poll has popular independent MP Andrew Wilkie retaining the green-left seat 61-39 on a two-candidate preferred basis against Labor’s Simon Davis.