Election 2022: Scott Morrison needs a big finish to the campaign

Scott Morrison visits Jasmine Greens Park Kiosk at Umina on the NSW Central Coast on Wednesday. Picture: Jason Edwards

There are still just over 10 days to go before the election and anything could happen.

But things will have to start turning sharply in Scott Morrison’s favour if the Coalition has any hope of returning to government.

And there are no signs that this is happening despite Anthony Albanese’s best efforts to lose the election through his persistent gaffes.

Anthony Albanese. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

The results of The Australian’s MRP poll may come as a surprise only to those who have, wishfully or otherwise, been predicting a hung parliament. It shows that if an election were held today, a predicted teal wave would be the least likely outcome beyond a majority Coalition victory.

The issue of which of the major parties any Climate 200 candidate might back if elected therefore becomes irrelevant. At 80 seats Albanese secures a comfortable majority, but nothing like the landslide victory of Kevin Rudd in 2007.

While Rudd secured 83 seats, he was coming from a long way back. He had to gain 23 to get there compared to the 12 extra the MRP suggests Labor would win on the current voting intentions of 19,000 voters surveyed.

The poll is not a prediction of the future. It’s not forecasting the results of May 21. What it does is capture what would happen if the election were held today based on the stated voting intention of those polled. It shows Morrison has defended Queensland and the losses in Western Australia are not quite as bad as being privately boasted about by Labor. But his problems are undoubtedly significant in the southeast of the country.

Rather than showing gains for the Coalition in NSW, which it needs to stem expected losses elsewhere, it shows the loss of Reid and Robertson. In Victoria, four seats would fall, with single-seat losses in the other states. And then there are five Coalition seats at 50-50, too close to call.

The best hope the Coalition has of picking up a seat on these numbers is Corangamite in Victoria. Other than losing an election, the biggest shock for the Liberals would be the potential loss of the Treasurer and the moderates’ hope as future party leader, Josh Frydenberg.

The poll reveals the size of the task ahead for Morrison in trying to turn the momentum in the final week of the campaign. He will need the numbers across the key seats to swing back no less than 3 per cent across the board to stem the losses for a start, let alone pick up seats from Labor.

The question is whether 10 days provides enough time to change these numbers.