Federal election 2022: Four Coaltion seats tipped to fall in NSW
Scott Morrison could lose four seats in his home state and fail to pick up seven target electorates, with the Coalition preparing a strategy to stem losses across NSW.
Scott Morrison could lose as many as four seats in his home state and fail to pick up seven target electorates, with the Coalition preparing a sandbagging strategy to stem losses across NSW.
The Liberal-held seats of Reid and Robertson are set to fall to Labor on May 21, according to a YouGov poll based on a survey sample of almost 19,000 voters across all 151 lower house seats.
The Prime Minister is also facing losses in the Sydney seats of Lindsay and Bennelong, where the Liberals are deadlocked with Labor less than two weeks out from the election.
Despite Mr Morrison campaigning in Gilmore, where former Liberal state minister Andrew Constance is running, Macquarie, Parramatta, Dobell and three Hunter seats, the Coalition is behind in all seven Labor-held target electorates.
The poll, commissioned by The Australian, shows the Liberal Party is also facing tight races in the Sydney seats of Banks, North Sydney and Mackellar.
Labor is on track to claim a thumping victory in Reid, which was held by the ALP for more than 90 years until Craig Laundy won it for the Liberals in 2013.
Liberal MP Fiona Martin, who holds the state’s most multicultural and religiously diverse seat on a 3.2 per cent margin, is well behind Labor’s Sally Sitou on primary vote and trails 44 to 56 per cent on two-party-preferred vote.
On the central coast, where Mr Morrison and government ministers have been regular visitors, Robertson MP Lucy Wicks has fallen behind Labor candidate and local emergency department doctor Gordon Reid. The poll shows Ms Wicks, who has held the seat since 2013, trailing Mr Reid 49-51 per cent on 2PP, with the Greens polling 9 per cent.
In the NSW south coast electorate of Gilmore, where Mr Morrison was campaigning this week, Labor MP Fiona Phillips leads Mr Constance by 53-47 per cent. Greens preferences are expected to help Labor overcome Mr Constance’s higher popular vote.
The Penrith-based electorate of Lindsay, a traditional swing seat held by Liberal Melissa McIntosh on a 5 per cent margin, is expected to go down to the wire. The poll lists the seat as too close to call, with Ms McIntosh and Labor’s Trevor Ross deadlocked on primary and 2PP vote. Bennelong, held by John Howard until his defeat in 2007 and won back by John Alexander in 2010, is also in play. Mr Alexander’s retirement has seen support for the Liberals plunge ahead of the election, with the major parties deadlocked at 50-50. While Liberal Simon Kennedy leads on primary vote, Greens preferences have lifted Labor’s 2PP result.
Labor has so far nullified Coalition efforts to win the ALP-held seats of Macquarie, Hunter, Dobell and Parramatta. Macquarie MP Susan Templeman, who holds the Blue Mountains-based seat on a 0.2 per cent margin, has a 53-47 per cent lead over Liberal candidate Sarah Richards.
High-profile Labor recruit Andrew Charlton, who was parachuted into Parramatta following the retirement of Julie Owens, holds a commanding lead over Liberal candidate Maria Kovacic. Despite Mr Morrison’s multiple visits to Parramatta, the YouGov poll has Mr Charlton leading Ms Kovacic 57-43 per cent.
The Nationals are bracing for a swing against them in the northern NSW seat of Page, held by Kevin Hogan on a 9.4 per cent margin. Mr Page holds a 52-48 per cent lead over Labor’s Patrick Deegan.
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