Election 2022: Coalition on track to lose four seats in Melbourne’s east
The only bright spot for the Coalition in Victoria is that polling reveals Corangamite is ‘too close to call’.
The Morrison government is on track to lose four seats
Were an election held today, Labor would be poised to win the blue-ribbon seat of Higgins for the first time, as well as winning back the neighbouring seat of Chisholm, according to a YouGov poll of almost 19,000 Australians across all 151 electorates.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong, and Assistant Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Tim Wilson’s seat of Goldstein, would fall to teal independents.
The only bright spot for the Coalition in Victoria is that the poll has determined the Labor-held seat of Corangamite, southwest of Geelong, is “too close to call”.
Previously held by Harold Holt, John Gorton and Peter Costello, Higgins has been Liberal heartland since its establishment in 1949, and takes in some of Melbourne’s most prestigious addresses in Toorak, Malvern and Armadale.
It was one of the last stops on the final day of what Bill Shorten thought was his election day victory lap in 2019, but Katie Allen held on for the Liberals against barrister Fiona McLeod, withstanding a 6.08 per cent swing against her to retain a 3.88 per cent two-party-preferred margin, following the resignation of Turnbull government minister Kelly O’Dwyer.
The latest polling shows that despite securing 40 per cent of the primary vote to Labor’s 33 and the Greens’ 21, Dr Allen would lose on preferences to infectious diseases expert, general physician and Labor candidate Michelle Ananda-Rajah by 47-53.
Immediately east of Higgins in Chisholm, Liberal backbencher Gladys Liu has been fighting to hold on to the second-most marginal seat in the country, having won by 1090 votes in 2019. The classic swing seat was previously held by Howard minister Michael Wooldridge, as well as Gillard-Rudd speaker Anna Burke, and Liberal-turned-independent Julia Banks.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese visited Chisholm on Tuesday with Premier Daniel Andrews in tow, as well as Labor’s candidate Carina Garland – a union official with a PhD in cultural studies. Mr Morrison paid his second campaign visit to the seat last week.
The polling shows Ms Liu is headed for a primary vote of 38 per cent to Dr Garland’s 39 and the Greens’ 11, resulting in a two-party-preferred loss of 47-53.
As revealed in The Australian on Wednesday, Mr Frydenberg is set to lose neighbouring Kooyong to Climate 200-backed paediatric neurologist Monique Ryan 47-53, and Mr Wilson would lose bayside Goldstein to fellow teal independent and former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel 48-52.
In Labor-held Corangamite, won by a 1.07 per cent margin by former teacher and journalist Libby Coker from now-senator Sarah Henderson in 2019, the polling shows a 50-50 two-party-preferred vote between Ms Coker and former Geelong mayor Stephanie Asher for the Liberals, with Ms Asher on a 43 per cent primary to Ms Coker’s 36.
Despite claims from some Liberals that they could be in with a chance in McEwan, Dunkley and Indi, the polling shows losses in all three.
Not reflected in the polling is that the Coalition could lose yet another Victorian seat to independents in the form of Nicholls, centred on Shepparton, in the state’s north.
Nationals MP Damian Drum is retiring, making way for a tight contest between Nats candidate Sam Birrell, Liberal Steve Brooks, and independent Rob Priestly.
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