Election 2022: LNP holds firm in Queensland
The LNP’s dominance in Queensland is likely to continue despite the exit of three Coalition MPs and cashed-up Labor campaigns.
Labor is on track to pick up only one seat in Queensland – the inner-city electorate of Brisbane – after failing to make inroads in key outer-suburban and regional mining areas.
The Liberal National Party’s dominance in Queensland at the past four elections is expected to continue despite the retirement of three Coalition MPs and cashed-up Labor campaigns in target seats from Cairns to Brisbane. A YouGov poll commissioned by The Australian, based on a survey sample of almost 19,000 voters across all 151 lower house seats, puts Labor ahead of the LNP in the seat of Brisbane, held by Trevor Evans on a 4.9 per cent margin.
With the LNP holding 23 of 30 lower house electorates in Queensland following the 2019 election rout, the poll reveals Labor is also neck-and-neck with the Coalition in the seats of Longman, Ryan and Leichhardt.
While Mr Evans is expected to win the primary vote in Brisbane on May 21, Greens preferences will push Labor candidate Madonna Jarrett ahead of the Assistant Minister for Waste Reduction and Environment. According to the YouGov poll, Labor has a 54 to 46 per cent lead over the LNP on the two-party-preferred vote.
The neighbouring seat of Ryan, held by Julian Simmonds on a 6 per cent margin, is locked at 50-50 as the LNP vote erodes under pressure from Labor and the Greens.
Scott Morrison, Anthony Albanese and Adam Bandt have made multiple visits to the previously safe conservative seat, which includes the gentrified inner-west suburbs of St Lucia, Indooroopilly and Toowong, after internal party tracking polling showed Ryan was in play.
One Nation preferences in Longman, which takes in the working-class Caboolture and retirement haven of Bribie Island, will again determine the result in the southeast Queensland seat. Longman, which has changed hands four times since the 2007 election, remains a dead-heat between the LNP and Labor. With One Nation expected to claim about 11 per cent of the primary vote, and the Greens, United Australia Party and others attracting 15 per cent, preference flows will decide who wins Longman.
Labor’s central and north Queensland election campaigns, which have fallen short of expectations after the disastrous ALP result in 2019, have stalled, with the LNP ahead in Flynn, Dawson, Capricornia, Herbert and Leichhardt. Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch, who won the Cairns-based seat on a 4.2 per cent margin at the last election, holds a 51-49 per cent lead over Labor’s Elida Faith.
Mr Entsch, who was convinced by Mr Morrison to run again at the age of 71, will rely on One Nation preferences to offset Greens preferences flowing to Labor.
The Gladstone-based seat of Flynn, one of Labor’s top targets ahead of the election, looks set to be won by former state LNP MP Colin Boyce. Mr Boyce, who was picked as the LNP candidate following the retirement of Ken O’Dowd, is pitted against Gladstone Labor mayor Matt Burnett. The YouGov poll shows One Nation preferences helping the LNP maintain a 54-46 per cent lead over Labor on 2PP vote.
Similar to the 2019 election, high One Nation primary votes in Flynn (16 per cent), Dawson (19 per cent), Capricornia (16 per cent) and Herbert (11 per cent) are expected to help the LNP hold the regional seats.
Following scares for Labor in Blair and Lilley in 2019, Shayne Neumann and Anika Wells are on track to retain their seats.
In the Ipswich-based seat of Blair, Mr Neumann holds a 54-46 per cent 2PP lead. Ms Wells, who won Wayne Swan’s former seat on a 0.6 per cent margin, leads the LNP 54-46 per cent in Lilley.
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