Election 2022: Coalition under fire in both the Northern Territory and South Australia

As well as being ahead in the NT, Labor is on track to win Boothby and possibly Christopher Pyne’s old seat of Sturt in South Australia.

Independent for Boothby Jo Dyer. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Kelly Barnes

Anthony Albanese is on track to win the traditionally safe Liberal electorate of Boothby and come close to claiming Christopher Pyne’s former seat of Sturt, as South Australian government MPs brace for swings against them on May 21.

A YouGov poll commissioned by The Australian, based on a survey sample of almost 19,000 voters across all 151 lower house seats, shows Labor’s Boothby candidate Louise Miller-Frost ahead of Liberal candidate ­Rachel Swift on the primary vote and holding a two-party-preferred lead of 53 to 47 per cent.

Sturt MP James Stevens, who replaced Mr Pyne at the 2019 election, is deadlocked 50-50 with Labor candidate Sonja Baram. Despite leading on the primary vote, strong support for the Greens lifted Labor’s 2PP vote.

Following Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas’ dominant South Australian election victory on March 19, senior Liberal strategists told The Australian that Boothby was likely lost and that Sturt was in play.

With retiring Liberal MP ­Nicolle Flint holding a slim 1.4 per cent margin in Boothby, any swing against the government in the southern Adelaide electorate was expected to result in a loss for Dr Swift. Preferences from the Greens and independents, ­including Climate 200-backed candidate Jo Dyer, will increase Labor’s 2PP vote.

Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie is on track to retain the traditionally safe Liberal seat of Mayo, previously held by Alexander Downer and Jamie Briggs. Ms Sharkie, who has won Mayo at the last two elections, holds a 52-48 per cent lead over Liberal candidate Allison Bluck.

Member for Mayo Rebekha Sharkie, left, with Mt Barker District Council Mayor Ann Ferguson. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Brenton Edwards

In the Northern Territory, where the Coalition and ALP are battling over Lingiari and Solomon, the YouGov poll puts Labor comfortably ahead in both seats.

The retirement of veteran Labor MP Warren Snowdon in Lingiari had fanned hopes in Country Liberal ranks that they could win – but the YouGov poll shows Labor candidate and former NT minister Marion Scrymgour is holding a commanding double-digit lead over Liberal candidate Damien Ryan.

Labor’s Luke Gosling is also well ahead of CLP candidate Tina MacFarlane in Solomon.