How does Australia work with an America led by a dangerous man?

The US election is an extraordinary victory for Donald Trump, but it comes with huge risks for America and the world.

The American people have chosen a man who has contempt for democracy and the rule of law. Picture: AFP

Donald Trump has achieved an extraordinary election victory. He is the only Republican to win the popular vote since 2004. The only former president to regain the White House since Grover Cleveland’s comeback win in 1892. The oldest elected president at age 78. And he did it as a convicted felon, adjudicated sexual abuser, twice impeached, election denier and coup plotter.

The American people returned to the presidency a man who did not accept losing the election four years ago, tried to overturn the result, incited a deadly and destructive riot at the US Capitol, refused to congratulate Joe Biden on his victory and declined to attend his inauguration or assist in the transition of power.

Trump claimed during this election campaign that there was vote fraud and “massive cheating”. But Kamala Harris did what Trump did not do. She accepted the voters’ verdict, will not challenge the result, phoned him to acknowledge his victory and will assist in the transition from one administration to another.

I wanted Trump to lose much more than I wanted Harris to win. Like conservatives Mike Pence, Mitt Romney and Dick and Liz Cheney, plus John Howard in Australia and William Hague in Britain, among many others, I judged Trump utterly unfit and unworthy to be 47th president.

I stand by that judgment but accept without equivocation that Trump won the election and did so clearly. But, having so much respect for the dignity, authority and capacity of the presidency, and utterly appalled by Trump’s lack of character, my view of him is unchanged by the result. He called Harris “retarded” and “stupid” while JD Vance called her “trash”.

In many columns, I acknowledged Trump’s appeal and argued he could not be ruled out from winning. He used grievance, envy, nativism, xenophobia, misogyny and sexism to win over voters. He tapped into important issues: the economy and immigration. He won significant support among white working-class voters and black and Latino minorities, and big votes in rural America.

This is a wake-up call for the centre-left in the US and in Australia, New Zealand, Britain and Europe: their voter base is crumbling. Harris had no persuasive plan for the economy and cost of living or to bring illegal immigration under control. The latter is a huge failure. Moreover, the centre-left needs to avoid the trap of identity politics and cultural crusades – a turn-off for moderate voters.

I also argued that Harris was an underwhelming candidate and her campaign was flawed. She failed to explain changed positions on policy or outline a compelling agenda for change. Yet Harris was a candidate for just over 100 days. Biden was a huge liability and history will judge him harshly for not exiting the race at the start of this year.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting Harris would have won if just 250,000 Americans voted differently in three states: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. That is, 250,000 voters out of 140 million. So, while the electoral college tally is clear, the margins of victory in these and other states are small.

Trump’s return will test the great republic. The American people have chosen a man who has contempt for democracy and the rule of law. He promised to be a dictator. He threatened to close down or investigate media companies. He wants to execute people who disagree with him, including political opponents, former advisers, military leaders and journalists.

Pence said Trump should “never be president” again. John Kelly, his former chief of staff, said Trump had “nothing but contempt” for democratic institutions. Mark Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Trump was a fascist and dangerous to America. Legendary journalist Bob Woodward, who uncovered Watergate, urged Americans to heed these warnings.

Most countries cannot fathom what America has done. Trump has no respect for traditional alliances, whether they be Britain or in Europe or Australia and the Asia-Pacific. He prefers dictators and tyrants. He said last week that US “allies are worse than our so-called enemies”. Can you imagine Republicans Dwight D. Eisenhower or Richard Nixon or Ronald Reagan, or George HW Bush or George W. Bush saying this?

US military aid to Ukraine to resist Russia’s invasion is now under threat. Trump favours a deal between Russia and Ukraine that is likely to involve ceding land to an invader. The US could ease sanctions against Russia. Trump has threatened to withdraw the US from NATO. And he has been equivocal about halting Chinese aggression and wants Taiwan to pay more for its defence.

Trump’s pledge to levy 10 to 20 per cent tariffs on all countries and 60 per cent on Chinese imports could plunge the world into recession. Tariffs would damage our exporters and we would be collateral damage in any retaliatory trade war. Trump’s big spending promises, busting the budget and blowing out debt, and huge tax cuts are likely to be inflationary and increase global interest rates.

Australians, understandably, preferred Harris over Trump. This was the wish of every other democratic nation according to polls. The AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement, as negotiated, is at risk. Trump is likely to renegotiate this Biden-Harris deal made with Australia and Britain and make Australia pay more.

More broadly, how does Australia navigate its relationship with an America led by an addled and dangerous man who does not have a coherent foreign policy? Appeals to the “special relationship” – which almost every other country says they have with the US – will not cut it. It is a new ballgame and Australia is unprepared.

This is not the election result Anthony Albanese, Penny Wong, Richard Marles or Kevin Rudd wanted. Albanese said Trump encouraged the “violent insurrection” at the US Capitol. Wong blamed Trump for the ransacking. Marles said Australia should criticise Trump if he “harms the national interest”. Rudd accused Trump of corruption and branded him “a traitor to the West”.

It will be a wild four years with Trump back in power. Nothing is certain. He remains a despicable and disgusting man who is devoid of integrity or ethical values, is boorish and moronic, and unstable. I fear, by a narrow margin, Americans have made the wrong decision. But it is a decision they must live with and we must accept.