The US presidential election is the most consequential in living memory yet it remains effectively tied, with neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former president Donald Trump with a commanding polling lead in the popular vote or seven key battleground states, underscoring just how polarised and divided Americans are.
With just 15 days until election day, there is hardly a voter who has not made up their mind about who they would vote for. Some polls show just 2-5 per cent of voters are undecided. But are they actual voters? Among actual voters, the proportion who have not made up their mind is likely to be much smaller. The contest is all but baked.
The key issue is turnout. Can Harris hold together the same coalition of voters that elected Joe Biden and Barack Obama, and also persuade “country club Republicans” repulsed by Trump to either vote for her or stay home and not vote for him? Or can Trump win over reluctant Republicans and appeal to Democratic voters grumpy with the Biden-Harris administration to not vote for her or vote for him?
Make no mistake, Trump is an utterly unworthy presidential candidate and a truly appalling and despicable person. He was found guilty on 34 criminal counts of falsifying business records related to hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, found liable for sexual assault and defamation of E. Jean Carroll in a civil case, and twice impeached by the House of Representatives.
After losing the 2020 election, Trump refused to accept the outcome. This undermined faith in the democratic process. He then worked overtime to overturn the election result and sought to persuade his vice-president, Mike Pence, not to certify the electoral college vote. Trump incited the riot at the US Capitol that resulted in death and destruction. He has contempt for the rule of law and democracy, and would seek to use authoritarian powers if re-elected.
Trump has spoken of terminating the constitution and being a dictator, turning the military against citizens, executing generals, shutting down media organisations, jailing opponents and putting former officials on trial, and pardoning more than 1000 people convicted over the Capitol riot.
If this is not enough, what should persuade Americans not to return Trump to power is character. He has boasted about sexually assaulting women, made fun of people with disabilities, accused migrants of eating dogs and cats, called Harris “retarded”, insisted Obama was not born in the US, promised to “lock up” Hillary Clinton, and dismissed many who worked for him as “dumb” and “stupid” and “traitors” to their country.
He is, as I have noted, a braggart and a bully, who defames and ridicules people, makes up juvenile names, use demagoguery and hucksterism to appeal to people with promises he cannot keep, trades on grievance, envy and xenophobia, appealing to the worst instincts in Americans. He has become increasingly unhinged, with cognitive decline evident.
Trump would risk global security with his cosy relationships with dictators Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. He blamed Volodymyr Zelensky for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and questioned US support for the imperilled country. He also questioned whether the US would defend Taiwan against Chinese invasion, saying they should pay more for defence.
He has no respect for alliances. His national security adviser, John Bolton, says he would withdraw from NATO. He exited the Paris climate accords and Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. There is no guarantee he would support AUKUS as currently negotiated. His 10 per cent tariff on all imports would spark a trade war, with Australia being collateral damage.
All of this should, and might, make Trump unelectable. But Harris faces significant obstacles on her path to the White House. It is not, and never was, going to be easy for her. She would be the first female president. Trump has populist appeal to Americans who feel left behind.
The assassination attempts correlated with an increase in his popularity. And Harris is suffering an incumbent curse amid a cost-of-living crisis globally, with voters eager to punish governments.
Although the US economy, in terms of growth, jobs, incomes, profits and stocks, has rarely performed better, many voters are just not feeling it in the hip pocket. They are paying more for housing, food and transport than they were four years ago. Harris is attached to an unpopular President who is not an electoral asset and the White House has covered up his cognitive decline.
Immigration is a major concern, even though illegal border crossings have been rising for decades, and cultural strain is evident in Western democracies. The Middle East conflict has split the Democratic Party, with many left-wing activists refusing to support Harris over her backing of Israel. I also believe Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan marked the moment many voters lost faith in his administration.
It is also true that Harris has not outlined a compelling policy agenda. She started her campaign late and has been slow to settle on messages that resonate with voters. Harris should be doing more media appearances and press conferences. Her responses to why she shifted positions on several issues have not been effective. There is energy and enthusiasm for her candidacy but it is not moving the polling needle.
Nevertheless, Harris is the superior contender for president. She is a conventional major party nominee, with a pathway from prosecutor to attorney-general, senator and Vice-President. Her views are within mainstream centre-left tradition. Harris poses zero international risk. She supports traditional alliances and is by far preferred by Australians as the next president.
The contrast with Trump should be stark. His mental decline, risk to global security and the economy, repeated criminality and danger to democracy make him unfit to be president. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (2019-23), told Bob Woodward for his new book that Trump was a fascist. “No one has ever been as dangerous to this country,” Milley said.
Think about that. I hope Americans do.
Read related topics:Donald Trump
Join the conversation
Who makes the law? Judicial activism and NZ’s Supreme Court
In New Zealand, there is now an increasingly public debate about the role of our highest court. It is probably a debate that Australia should have as well.
Read more
Rudd’s verdict on Xi offers key lessons for Albanese
The problem with the Albanese government’s foreign policy is that it deals with serious issues on the basis of looks, convenience and short-term politics.
Read more