US election in November is about the survival of the great republic

Former president Donald Trump attends UFC 302 alongside friend and the company's president Dana White.

The US faces its most important election in its near 250-year history in November. At stake is not simply a victory by one party over another or one personality over another, but rather the survival of the great republic. The re-election of Donald Trump poses an existential threat, with democracy and the rule of law imperilled, and the US’s global standing in jeopardy.

The election for president, almost certainly between Joe Biden and Trump, is a battle for America’s soul. Biden has spent his adult life operating within, bound by and defending representative democracy, while Trump has sought to overturn democracy, expressed contempt for institutions and promises to unleash authoritarian powers if returned to office.

There can be no gainsaying what is at stake. Democracy itself is on the ballot. What Trump would do if he regained the presidency is the essential issue. This cannot be pushed to one side and discounted. Biden may be at times a slow-moving, incoherent octogenarian. But this pales into insignificance compared to what Trump, unbound, would do in a second term.

When Trump lost the November 2020 election, he refused to accept the result. No defeated presidential candidate had done that. When a slew of court challenges and his own Department of Justice failed to find any evidence of widespread electoral fraud, Trump was still not persuaded. In a typically petulant response, Trump even refused to attend Biden’s inauguration.

Worse, Trump incited the insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6. He encouraged it and defended it. He demanded vice- president Mike Pence use his ceremonial role to reject the certification of the Electoral College vote. When the riot caused destruction and death, Trump sat glued to the television and initially ignored pleas from his own staff to urge the mob to stop the carnage.

It is not at all surprising Trump was impeached – for a second time – for encouraging the US Capitol protests, demanding his vice-president try to overturn the result and, therefore, initiate a coup in an attempt to stay in office. The charge of “incitement of insurrection” was adopted by the House of Representatives, with 10 Republicans voting with Democrats.

Trump still faces federal and state criminal indictments for his attempt to overturn the last election. Jack Smith’s four-point indictment alleges Trump engaged in a conspiracy to defraud the US and a federal appeals court ruled Trump is not immune from prosecution. Trump and other co-conspirators also face Georgia state charges for attempting to overturn that state’s presidential vote.

It is beyond belief that given all of this, Trump won the nomination of the Republican Party for president a third time and is effectively tied with Biden or ahead in national polls, and leading in most if not all state battleground polls. Yet Trump still does not accept the outcome of the last election and refuses to support the outcome of the next election unless he wins.

This is not to deny Trump’s appeal to many, indeed millions of Americans. Trump is a populist and a demagogue, and this style is not new in US politics. He trades on grievance, appeals to the worst instincts in voters and makes promises he did not and cannot keep. He is a bully and a braggart, and challenges the so-called “establishment” and “the deep state”. He is a phony political huckster.

A Trump return to The White House would be dangerous. He has mused about being a dictator, suspending the constitution and executing generals and political opponents. He would use the military to quash protests. He would pardon the 1400-plus who have been charged (including 1000-plus convicted) with involvement in the Capitol riot. These statements cannot be dismissed lightly.

Trump’s closest colleagues fear what a second term would bring. Chief-of-staff John Kelly said Trump “admires autocrats and murderous dictators” and “has nothing but contempt” for democratic institutions. Defence secretary Mark Esper said Trump was “a threat to democracy”. John Bolton, his national security adviser, said Trump was “not fit to be president” and would be a “danger” to the US.

His conviction in New York on all 34 felony counts for falsifying documents to cover up a payment to a former porn star ahead of the 2016 election was not an abuse of the legal system but validation of it. The key issue was not that he had sex with Stormy Daniels and lied about it but that he corruptly used business records to cover up the hush-money payment.

The judgment showed that Trump, who has spent millions over many years evading the law, was not above the law. He attacked the judgment as “rigged” and lashed out at the judge, prosecutors and jury. He has not taken responsibility for his actions by accepting the verdict and showing remorse. Yet the rule of law is the bedrock of democracy.

These charges go to Trump’s character and his fitness for the presidency. It comes after he was found in a civil case to have sexually assaulted E. Jean Carroll. Three remaining criminal trials – stealing classified documents, and federal and state charges relating to attempting to overturn the last election – may not go to trial this year but they are stronger than the cases Trump has already lost.

Australians in their infinite wisdom know Trump will be bad for the US and Australia. The latest Lowy Institute poll shows 68 per cent of Australians would vote for Biden; just 29 per cent for Trump. It is a message that should be heeded by politicians, activists and commentators who seem blind to the danger Trump represents. We can only hope Americans realise this danger before it is too late.