The US is getting ready to participate in military strikes against Iran, likely within a week.
Five things point to this.
First, Donald Trump left the G7 meeting in Canada early because of the Middle East situation.
It’s a four-hour flight from Kananaskis to Washington DC on Air Force One. Trump can perform his role as commander in chief on the flight to authorise a strike, but he will want to get to the White House situation room, to access advisers and real-time vision of targets.
The second pointer is, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is calling key counterparts, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot. With the G7 leaders in the same room, there is no need for Rubio to be calling unless something is urgent.
The third indicator a strike is imminent is the US Defence Department’s spokesman Sean Parnell saying: “American forces are maintaining their defensive posture and that has not changed.”
Take it from me: when the Pentagon says nothing is happening, that means something big is about to go down.
Fourth, the aircraft carrier Nimitz and its strike group have cleared the Strait of Malacca and are steaming at speed towards the Middle East. The Nimitz will join the carrier USS Carl Vinson in place with a strike group and four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, plus (in all probability) a fast-attack submarine carrying land-attack cruise missiles.
Point five, in the past 24 hours more than two dozen KC-135R and KC-46A air-to-air refuelling tankers have deployed east over the Atlantic – an unmistakeable sign of major operations to come.
One of the many remarkable features of Israel’s military campaign thus far is that it is operating several hundred combat aircraft and long-range uncrewed platforms in repeated waves over Tehran and western Iran, more than 2000km from Israel.
This takes a lot of air-to-air refuelling. The US is probably moving refuellers to support the Israeli effort. It also gives President Trump options for American military strikes.
By the weekend the US will have a major strike capability in place. Israel has already destroyed most of Iran’s air force and anti-aircraft batteries, and they are making an intense effort to destroy remaining command and control, missile and defensive systems.
One thing left to do, and uniquely within American military capability, is to destroy deeply buried nuclear facilities at Fordow. It is said this can only be done by a 30,000lb GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a weapon that can only be carried by US long-range bombers.
The “bunker busters” can reach deep enough to destroy centrifuges at Fordow that are enriching uranium to weapons-grade level.
My view is, Israel has other means to destroy these centrifuges, including through cyber attacks on power supplies, but this is not a target to be left to chance.
Donald Trump has an opportunity to deliver on his Truth Social declaration that “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON”. He can do so in a way that does not commit ground forces and in a theatre where enemy air defences are destroyed.
Trump’s willingness to act is enabled by Israeli capability and strategic smarts. This could also lead – for good or ill – to regime change in Iran, cement Israeli military dominance in the region and Sunni dominance over Iran.
Trump can choose not to strike if Iran says it will openly give up its nuclear program, but it’s years too late for that to be believable.
As distressing as military operations may be, helping Israel complete the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program is the right move for longer-term stability in the Middle East.
Against these momentous changes in the Middle East, it is almost trivial to turn to Anthony Albanese being denied his G7 side meeting with Trump.
If the President wanted to, he could have found 20 minutes to meet Albanese. An ally in good standing might have been invited to join Trump on the Air Force One flight to Washington.
Sadly, Albanese has brought the alliance to such a place in the White House’s estimation, he is not being afforded that chance.
Contrast that with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s skill to build a friendship with Trump.
Australia is left to apply Kremlinology – studying how other leaders interact – to deduce from the Starmer-Trump meeting that AUKUS is “OK.”
AUKUS might be, but the Pentagon is reviewing the arrangements having clearly said Australia must spend a lot more on defence. Trump’s departure means we lose the chance for Albanese to make the case for the alliance.
Amid the Iran crisis, Albanese might have offered to deploy a ship (belatedly) to the Red Sea, send an airborne early warning aircraft back to Europe to relieve pressure on US planes, or offered to backfill US ships leaving the Pacific.
But nothing like that. Here’s the sad truth: Trump has sized up Albanese and found Labor’s defence effort wanting.
The President’s hand-picked Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, made it plain, advising Richard Marles at the beginning of this month we should lift defence spending to 3.5 per cent.
We have been relegated to the status of a third-tier ally. Britain and Japan are standing up by comparison, significantly lifting defence spending and defence equipment production.
No aspiring statesman should aim for Australia to punch below our weight in the alliance. But Albanese seems content with this outcome. After his thumping election win, he sees no domestic political threat on defence policy he needs to worry about.
Albanese wants to mute our international role; to be the earnest but ineffective partner of ASEAN and the Pacific Islands; not raising hackles in Beijing and flying below Trump’s radar. He maintains that Australians voted “to change the way we engaged with the world”. This is what he means to deliver.
The Pentagon review of AUKUS will conclude we need to do more, but Albanese seems set against strengthening defence.
If that’s the case, don’t expect Trump to spend time fixing a problem Albanese won’t acknowledge.
Peter Jennings is director of Strategic Analysis Australia and an adjunct fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs. He is a former deputy secretary for strategy in the Defence Department.
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