Donald Trump is at a fork in the road. The path he chooses will change the course of his presidency, the future of the Middle East and help define the meaning of his “American First” agenda.
The stunning success to date of the Israeli campaign against Iran has handed the US President a historic window of opportunity to lend America’s vast firepower to the war effort.
The objective is to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, although landing a lethal blow against the regime is on the table too.
Trump is still weighing up his options, but heis clearly thinking about plunging the US directly into the conflict. It looms as potentially the most important decision of his presidency.
Already he has taken Iran into the endgame by demanding the regime’s “unconditional surrender” and threatening the life of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – labelling him an “easy target”.
Iran can avoid catastrophe and de-escalate the conflict. But this would involve the regime ceasing its strikes on Israel and agreeing to a comprehensive unwinding of its nuclear program and the opening up of its facilities to ongoing international inspection.
Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump said it was “very simple … they just can’t have a nuclear weapon”.
Dismissing the prospect of a ceasefire, he said Tehran should have done a deal with him when it had the chance. He called on the Iranians to cease hostilities by “giving up entirely”.
With diplomacy having failed, the world is waiting to see how Trump responds to ongoing Iranian defiance. Risks abound, but so do opportunities.
Only the US has the capability to inflict serious damage on Iran’s underground uranium enrichment site at Fordow. But Trump must deploy America’s B-2 bombers that are capable of dropping the military’s massive 30,000-pound “bunker busters”.
He now faces growing calls to seize this opportunity to smash the regime’s nuclear aspirations, stand by Israel, re-establish deterrence – by sending a message to both Russia and China – while also restoring faith in the US as a reliable and willing ally and partner.
He may also feel a sense of urgency. Having exposed the weakness of the Iranian defences, the Israeli attack may have the effect of spurring Iran into more rapidly enriching uranium in a race to develop a nuclear bomb. Trump’s rhetoric suggests this is where his mindset is.
If successful, a strike on the Fordow site would change the strategic calculus in the Middle East. Yet Trump knows this risks a major broadening of the conflict, pushing up global energy prices and exposing US bases to attack.
It would also thrust a spear into the heart of Trump’s loyal support base and be seen as a betrayal.
The MAGA faithful are opposed to America intervening in foreign conflicts and the “forever wars” they inherited from the neo-conservatives two decades ago.
Trump – who used his inaugural address to promote himself as a peacemaker – made the point himself in Riyadh last month.
“In the end, the so-called nation-builders wrecked far more nations than they built,” he said.
“And the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves.”
Outspoken Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene has already set the political battlelines, warning that “anyone slobbering for the US to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA”.
Intervention will drive a wedge through Trump’s political support base, but doing nothing will make the US look weak.
In the end, Trump may find the US cannot relinquish its responsibility as a global superpower so easily. Any intervention is likely to be limited and targeted but he will need to carefully frame it within the context of how it serves his “America First” agenda.
Ayatollah says Iran will ‘never surrender’
As Donald Trump considers whether the US will join the conflict, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei says any US military intervention will bring ‘irreparable damage’.
Israeli strikes shake foundation of Iran’s theocratic rule
Attacks have undermined the security that the government provided to the population for decades