Why Australians, in their wisdom, would vote for Harris over Trump
As Americans remain divided over who to elect as their 47th president, Australians made their minds up long ago.
As Americans remain divided over who to elect as their 47th president, Australians made their minds up long ago. Every poll taken shows a clear preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by a wide margin. This shows the wisdom of Australians in knowing who would be best for the US and best for Australia.
A YouGov poll found 67 per cent of Australians would vote for Harris compared with just 33 per cent for Trump. It found 58 per cent of Coalition voters and 79 per cent of Labor voters would back Harris. A Lowy Institute poll found 73 per cent of Australians would prefer Harris as president and just 22 per cent opted for Trump.
Australians prize their democracy. Trump refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, incited the riot at the US Capitol ahead of the certification of the electoral college vote and repeatedly tried to overturn the election by pressuring state officials, mounting spurious court cases and making baseless claims of fraud.
It is why John Howard, a staunch conservative, told me he could never vote for Trump. He described Trump as “unfit” for the presidency and characterised his anti-democratic actions as “appalling” and “atrocious”. Howard said: “I am not any fan of Trump. His behaviour since losing the election has been disgraceful.”
We also can spot a fraud a mile away. Australians respect people of good character. We expect to be treated with respect and dignity.
Trump is a populist who has stoked anger and grievance. He is a convicted felon. He has been found liable for sexual assault and bragged about inappropriately touching women. Trump has said the most appalling things about people.
The Trump campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York this week was the manifestation of MAGA Republicans in all their ugliness with nativism, xenophobia, racism, anti-Semitism, misogyny and threats of violence on full display.
This is not the Grand Old Party of Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, or Bush 41 and Bush 43.
A returned Trump to the White House would be bad for Australia. Trump has no foreign policy coherence, no detailed strategy for America’s leadership role in the world, and would again challenge longstanding alliances and global institutions.
Trump boasts of his relations with dictators and autocrats such as Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-un and Viktor Orban.
Australia has been a strong supporter of Ukraine as it fights to repel Russia’s illegal and unwarranted invasion. Trump has talked about broking a “deal” between the two warring countries on day one of his presidency.
This presumably would involve Ukraine ceding land to Russia. Trump has blamed Volodymyr Zelensky for starting the war. He questioned ongoing US support for Ukraine. Trump also tried to shake down Zelensky for dirt on the Bidens, which led to his impeachment.
John Bolton, former national security adviser to Trump, says the former president would withdraw the US from NATO. This would be bad for Europe. Trump is not an institution builder and sees little value in historic alliances or keeping commitments to steadfast allies. He withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change and would do so again if returned to office.
No country wants to see war between China and Taiwan. It would be catastrophic. Joe Biden has made it clear, in contrast to the stated US position of “strategic ambiguity”, that he would defend Taiwan. Peter Dutton told me Australia almost certainly would join the US if it became involved in such a war. But Trump has given no guarantees and said the price for continued US defence support to Taiwan should be increased.
Most important for Australia is the fate of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine agreement with the US and Britain. I’ve long argued that AUKUS is not safe under Trump. He had nothing to do with negotiating AUKUS, he would see it as a Biden-Harris project and would be reluctant to support it given US production delays for its own submarine program.
Bolton recently said AUKUS, like all international agreements, “could be in jeopardy” under Trump. With Australia expecting at least three and up to five US Virginia-class submarines to be acquired by the 2030s, Trump may well think it is ripe for renegotiation as if it were a Manhattan real estate deal. He could up the multi-billion-dollar price considerably.
There is no question that Trump’s economic policies would be bad for Australia. It is nonsense to suggest otherwise.
The biggest danger for Australia is Trump’s plan to levy a 10-20 per cent tariff on all imports to the US without exemption. He has pledged a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports. Tariffs not only increase the cost of imported goods, passed on to consumers, but spark retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
Since the 1980-’90s governments of Bob Hawke and Paul Keating, Australia has been a free-trade nation and led the international push to reduce tariffs. This made industries more efficient and competitive, and reduced prices for consumers. The Labor free trade push was continued by Howard’s Coalition government.
Trump’s regressive tariffs would spark a trade war, with Australia suffering as a consequence.
His tariffs, big spending plans and huge income tax cuts would be highly inflationary. He promises a more interventionist monetary policy and has flagged sacking Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve.
Harris may be promising big spending programs but Trump is promising even more spending, estimated to increase debt by $US7 trillion. These policies would risk recession. And that would weaken Australia’s economy.
The bottom line is that Harris would be a conventional foreign policy president. She believes in a global leadership role for the US. She supports longstanding alliances. The Biden-Harris administration forged AUKUS and elevated the Quad.
Harris would respect Australia’s leaders, whether Labor or Coalition, and seek to work constructively together. And Harris believes in democracy. We can only hope that Americans have the wisdom of Australians.
