In assessing the consequences of the US presidential election, senior ministers, public servants and staff members in the Morrison government are entirely relaxed about, and even welcoming of, a victory by Joe Biden. Indeed, several Coalition MPs contacted for this column are secretly hoping there is a Democrat in the White House in January.
After almost four years of Donald Trump’s disastrous presidency, treating alliance partners with contempt and undermining the post-war liberal order, there is an understandable wish for a more normal, conventional and predictable presidency. Biden, for Australian policymakers, is seen as a safe, reliable choice.
Australia’s foreign policy establishment knows Biden as a former US vice-president, senator and chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee. It understands his world view and believes he will be easier to deal with. It trusts his experience. Biden presents no challenge to any significant foreign policy stance taken by a post-war Australian government.
Michael Fullilove is the executive director of Australia’s leading foreign policy think tank, the Lowy Institute. In an interview for this column, Fullilove said a Biden election victory next month presented little risk for Australia’s international interests or its defence and security relationship with the US.
“It is in Australia’s interest that the US be well governed and be led by a president who can bring the US together rather than divide it, a president who believes in a leadership role for the US, a president who is attracted to rather than repelled by alliances,” Fullilove said. “So in many ways a Biden presidency would represent a return to normality for Australia and other allies.
“We would have less of a monopoly on Biden’s attention and access to his presidency than we do under Trump. (Trump) has only hosted two state dinners in his first term and Australia was given one of them. If Biden wins, it will be a more of a contest for access to US policymakers. That is OK, we can compete against other countries and allies, and I would back our ability to do that.”
Many Coalition MPs dislike Trump’s style. As Malcolm Turnbull has argued, Trump is not a conservative. The trashing of political norms and shattering of presidential conventions grates with many in the Morrison government.
The Trump show is an anathema to those who were inspired by Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush to devote their lives to politics. Trump’s attempt to delegitimise the election with attacks on voting, claims the outcome will be “rigged” and threatening not to leave office with a peaceful transfer of power if he is defeated is unpalatable for many in the Morrison government.
These authoritarian instincts, like Trump’s claim that the media is an enemy of the state, and his praise for strongmen such as Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un are unconscionable.
In the US, Biden has earned more Republican endorsements than any other Democratic nominee post-war.
Indeed, Biden has more cross-party endorsements than any other candidate for president in almost 50 years. Many prominent Republicans with close links to Australia such as Colin Powell, Chuck Hagel, John Negroponte, Richard Armitage and Robert Zoellick have endorsed Biden.
Biden actually aligns better with the Morrison government’s international priorities. Australia would welcome the US returning to a lead role in global affairs and working co-operatively with other nations on combating terrorism, addressing global health issues, including COVID-19, and climate change. A Biden presidency would see the US rejoin the World Health Organisation and the Paris Accord. Biden would repair relations with Germany, France, the EU and NATO allies.
Biden sees eye-to-eye with Morrison on trade. The US would rejoin and renegotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Biden would seek to end the US trade war with China, where Australia has been collateral damage, and work cooperatively to improve the global trading system and fix dispute settlement processes. Biden has been a strong critic of China’s geopolitical ambitions and the US would likely adopt a more coherent China policy that wins the support of US allies.
There are, however, concerns with Biden’s domestic policy agenda. He is to the left of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. His support for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 would put pressure on the Morrison government to sign up to this goal. He would increase taxes and impose new regulations on business. He would be under pressure from his party’s left wing to embrace identity politics.
Yet Biden has always been moderate and centrist on policy, and can work across the divide with Republicans.
If Trump is defeated, Australia’s foreign policy, defence and security establishment would breathe a sigh of relief. It would no longer live in fear about an unhinged, unpredictable, unreliable president who makes decisions overnight via Twitter. A senior government figure told this column that they worry Trump could junk the US-Australia alliance at any moment. Trump does not have a consistent foreign policy based on values; he is instinct-driven and transactional.
Morrison has wisely declined to offer an endorsement of Trump or Biden in next month’s election. It would be a grave error of judgment for any prime minister to support a presidential candidate. The Australia-US relationship transcends political partisanship. For example, Harold Holt was close to Lyndon Johnson. Bob Hawke got on exceptionally well with the older Bush.
The reality is that Scott Morrison would get on well with a re-elected Trump or an elected Biden. Morrison has forged an effective relationship with Trump. This was evident during his state visit to Washington. But it is equally the case that Morrison would get on well with Biden. He is, after all, a pragmatist. The briefing for Morrison on a Biden presidency is being drafted now.
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