While the world has been transfixed by the theatrics of Donald Trump projecting a macho image as a self-described survivor of COVID-19, a more terminal political prognosis for the president is closing in.
In recent days, while we have been watching the Trump Covid show, a slew of polls reveals that his Democrat opponent Joe Biden has dramatically extended his lead over the president.
With under four weeks to go until the November 3 poll, Biden now leads Trump by a formidable 9.2 points according to the RCP national average of all polls. This is up from 6.1 points only a week ago; a punishing response from voters to Trump’s poor performance in the first presidential debate. Some polls, like this week’s WSJ/NBC poll have Biden a thumping 14 points ahead. Biden has also extended his lead in the battleground states that will decide the election and he is even leading in states like Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio which were once expected to be easy wins for Trump.
Put simply, unless Trump can engineer a stunning comeback in just a few weeks, he is on track not just to lose this election, but to lose it in a landslide.
To put this in perspective, Trump supporters point to his come-from-behind victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, a comeback that began just 10 days out from the election. The polls were wrong then, they said, so they will be wrong again.
Perhaps, but the signs are much more ominous this time. Firstly, in the entire six month period leading up to the 2016 election, Clinton never enjoyed a lead even approaching this size over Trump, and certainly nothing like it with under a month to go.
Clinton’s 2016 poll leads over Trump were erratic and uneven, with Trump passing her twice during the campaign. Trump has never narrowed the gap with Biden to less than 4 points any time this year.
Trump’s 2016 comeback over Clinton was also triggered by a specific event – FBI chief James Comey’s decision to reopen the probe into the Clinton email saga.
With his campaign now facing its potential Waterloo, Trump has chosen to try to engineer a last stand, game-changing moment from his fight against COVID-19.
He has done this in true Trump style, dividing the nation with brazen behaviour for a patient supposedly recovering from a potentially deadly virus.
From his drive-past of supporters outside the hospital to his theatrical helicopter return to the White House, Trump has sought to portray the image of a strong leader in control. He has made it clear there will be no Boris Johnson-style epiphany which will lead him to more fully respect the dangers of COVID-19 or express greater empathy for others who have died.
Instead the president, who had the best medical team in the country and a cocktail of medications unavailable to ordinary Americans, has told them ‘don’t be afraid of Covid, don’t let it dominate your life.”
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
One wonders how such a glib dismissal of the pandemic will be received by the families and friends of the 210,000 Americans who have died from it, not to mention the more than seven million who have caught it and the tens of millions who have lost their jobs because of it?
But Trump is driven by politics above all else and at this late stage he may feel it is self-defeating to suddenly change course at the eleventh hour. Trump’s ultimate political message now is that Americans simply have to live with the virus, get on with life and follow his example that if you do get infected, you are likely to survive.
This will play well with Trump’s rusted-on support base, who are less worried about containing the virus and more concerned about the economy and jobs. They will lap up his strongman persona.
It will not play well with those roughly two-thirds of voters who already disapprove of Trump’s mismanagement of the pandemic which has seen the US, with just 4 per cent of the world’s population, suffer 20 per cent of all coronavirus deaths.
But the key question for Trump is how his actions will be seen by the 14 per cent of Americans who say they are still undecided about who to vote for.
Will they see what Trump wants them to see – a strong president, a survivor against the odds, leading from the front and telling the country to get on with life?
Or will they see a president who has irresponsibly played down the virus yet again after fumbling his leadership of the pandemic since it began?
Trump is rolling the dice on this election like never before, but his odds are growing longer by the day.
(Cameron Stewart is also US Contributor for Sky News Australia)
More Coverage
Join the conversation
Parliament’s day of shame after October 7 solemnity
In its wishy-washy approach to the Middle East crisis, the Albanese government is not alone in failing to understand the dire implications of the barbaric October 7 slaughter of Jews and subsequent events.
Read more
Rocky road for rates as dodgy data is revised
Strong US employment data means there will be no aggressive US rate-cutting cycle in the near term after a year marked by extreme data fluctuations.
Read more