Dunkley by-election: Swing shows two things … and means another two

Anthony Albanese and Jodie Belyea speak to the media in Frankston. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

The Dunkley by-election result of Labor holding a safe seat after a strong swing shows two things and means another two.

The swing, which can be considered a political “draw” at this stage, shows a relieved Anthony Albanese has been sent a message that he needs to change Labor’s approach.

It also shows and that, an equally relieved, Peter Dutton has been shown as an effective Opposition Leader in his first term.

This means the Prime Minister cannot – and will not – be complacent after a swing in a safe Labor seat where cost-of-living was the paramount issue and, while the key to limiting a bigger swing against the Government, the tax cuts are not the total answer.

It also means that Dutton’s political strategy and tactics in a tough atmosphere for the Albanese Government may be starting to work as an Opposition but now he has to take the next step of becoming a credible alternative Government make bigger inroads at the next election and entertain any hope of winning.

In effect, Albanese has to lift Labor’s stocks beyond this result to keep a government majority at the 2025 election and Dutton has to build momentum from a few hopeful signs in Dunkley and the ALP Victorian stronghold.

Labor argues that Dutton should have done much better after such a tough economic period for the Government and the Liberal corollary is that Albanese should have done much better given a new $105 billion tax cut strategy.

Both are true to an extent but rather than worry about what could have or would have been a better result the by-election vote is a fact and has to be confronted.

Already senior Ministers are vowing not to be complacent and Albanese, even before the vote, conceded Labor had to do more than the suite of cost-saving measures introduced last year, including health and child care, and the proposed tax cuts.

While the Jim Chalmers’ tax cuts undoubtedly helped Labor hold its ground – just as the national polls have shown the ALP successfully treading water – there has to be much more done over more areas to get Labor across the line.

It was significant that before the vote Albanese pointed not to the disastrous Labor by-election losses of the Whitlam and Keating Governments in Bass and Canberra but to the Howard Government loss in Ryan in 2001 from which John Howard recovered after a drastic reset in the following May Budget.

The Treasurer’s tax cuts have helped Labor hold the line but his economic management is going to come under increasing strain to do more in May while not adding to inflation.

For Dutton, who did not rush from the blocks in his first 12 months as Liberal leader and has played the subsequent period well, the next 12 months will test his ability to put out good policy and maintain unity.

The attitude of both Albanese and Dutton before the by-election suggests both have got the message and it is now up to them to deliver.