Both the major parties have a ‘women problem’

Women are deeply unimpressed with both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton as leaders.

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Female voters are poised to throw an election spanner in the works for both the major parties over the cost of living.

Not only are they unhappy with the Albanese government, women are deeply unimpressed with both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton as leaders.

This is a problem for both sides of politics, and not just for the ­Coalition – as has become popular mythology – because more women are now parking their vote with the Greens.

As counterintuitive as it may appear – considering the economic vandalism the Greens are ­accused of promoting and the assumption that the cost of living is of greater concern for women – as a party of protest the Greens clearly still have allure.

And women have much to protest about.

Not only do many women manage household finances, the gender pay gap exposes single mothers in particular to the sensitivities of inflationary pressures.

For Labor, this is a problem at a fundamental level.

The female primary vote over the first three months of the year dipped below 30 per cent for the first time. Most of this has gone to the Greens, which enjoy a primary vote support of 15 per cent among all women.

Then opposition leader Anthony Albanese votes at Marrickville Library in his Sydney electorate of Grayndler to vote at the 2022 federal election. Picture: Getty Images

This trend might help explain why Albanese has been wrapping up every policy and dollar announcement since the start of the year as a cost-of-living measure – however remote the link might be.

And when Labor announced its billion-dollar women’s health package in January, Dutton was quick to say “me too”.

For Dutton, the problem is unique. It is not true to say the Coalition has a women problem any more than Labor. The conservative parties lead Labor on a two-party preferred split of 51/49. But here Dutton personally does have a significant problem among women aged 18 to 34.

The Liberal leader’s approval rating for women in this age group is just 21 per cent – half that of men. Which leads the examination of this survey to another political mythology and the assumption that young men are swinging wildly towards Dutton in a Joe Rogan/Donald Trump inspired lurch to the right.

There is no evidence in News­poll to suggest this is the case.

If there is a broader global phenomenon based around this notion, it isn’t happening yet in Australia to any discernible ­degree.

Men in this 18-34 year old age group are no more approving of Dutton’s performance than their counterparts further along the path of life. Nor are they significantly less approving of Albanese.

Then defence minister Peter Dutton arrives to vote at the Albany Creek State School polling booth in his seat of Dickson in 2022. Picture: Zak Simmonds

The approval rating for Dutton among 18 to 34-year-olds is 40 per cent. Among 35 to 49-year-olds it is 39 per cent and for 50 to 64-year-olds, it is 40 per cent. These are ­remarkably similar numbers to those enjoyed – or not enjoyed – by Albanese.

Where Dutton’s approval ratings are highest is among men aged over 65.

That is not to say there may be some shift in terms of voting intention. But this is within the margin of error.

It is women rather than men who are disrupting the status quo. If 15 per cent of women now say they support the Greens, it would be a safe bet to assume that number can be doubled among women aged between 18 and 34.

When preference flows are factored in, Labor still leads 60/40 in the 18 to 34-year-old demographic courtesy of the sizeable Greens vote – which is equal to that of the Coalition at 28 per cent.

That Labor is only at 31 per cent in this age group on a primary vote level – considering its traditional dominance in this space – suggests it is doing something seriously wrong. And the wiping of student loans has failed to do the trick.

Voters line up at Sandgate State School in the northern Brisbane seat of Lilley in 2022. Picture: Steve Pohlner

The quarterly analysis represents Newspoll surveys for the first three months of this year. While it isn’t good news for Labor, with the Coalition leading 51/49 on a two party preferred basis ­nationally, there are swings in all directions and within multiple demographics.

An area of concern for the Coalition should be where the state swings are and are not. It appears that a 3 per cent swing toward the LNP in Queensland since the December quarter is responsible for the ­Coalition being marginally in front on the national number.

The 3.1 swing against Labor in Victoria was already factored in before the Coalition jumped ahead and has, if anything, tightened up in the past three months.

The problem here is obvious. There are virtually no seats in Queensland in terms of direct ALP/LNP contest that are considered in play. And the swings in Western Australia and NSW based on these numbers compared to the last election are below 2 per cent. There simply aren’t enough seats on offer for the ­Coalition in this scenario.

It all still points to a minority government, most likely for Labor.

What’s happening beneath the surface of the headline numbers, however, paints an ugly and confusing picture.

The cost-of-living crisis and the prolonged period of inflation has fractured traditional voting patterns further. The electorate is now a multi-polar beast.

While the Newspoll analysis examines the past and is not necessarily a predictor of the future, if this deepening fragmentation of the electorate becomes entrenched as a result of three years of economic pain and lack of national leadership, the country could be heading towards an era of hung parliaments, not just one.