Newspoll: Majority of voters tip Coalition victory at next election

A majority of voters for the first time expect the Coalition to win the next federal election, with Anthony Albanese sliding to the lowest approval levels since becoming Prime Minister amid a fall in support for Labor.

For the first time, a majority of voters expect Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and the Coalition to form government at this year’s election, according to the latest Newspoll. Picture: Brendan Radke, NewsWire/Martin Ollman

You can now listen to The Australian's articles. Give us your feedback.

You can now listen to The Australian's articles.

A majority of voters for the first time expect the Coalition to win the next federal election, with Anthony Albanese sliding to the lowest approval levels since becoming Prime Minister amid a fall in support for Labor.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition kicking off the election year with Liberal leader Peter Dutton closing the gap further as preferred prime minister and the ­Coalition leading 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis.

The poll reveals a significant shift in voter sentiment against Mr Albanese over the summer break.

Labor had hoped to leverage a flurry of early announcements to launch its pre-election pitch but now starts the year in a marginally worse position than they finished last year, with the past week dominated by a political dispute between the leaders over the national response to a rising number of anti-Semitic attacks.

There has also been a significant shift in voter expectations, with a majority of voters now believing a Coalition victory is more likely, either with the ­Coalition winning the election in its own right or in a minority government.

This marks a reversal of electoral expectations just six months ago when Labor was considered the most likely to win the election among a majority of voters.

A poll of 1259 voters conducted between January 20 and January 24 showed 53 per cent of voters were expecting the Coalition to win the election compared to 47 per cent for Labor.

When this question was last asked in August, 55 per cent were backing Labor to win and 45 per cent predicting a Coalition victory.

The latest Newspoll results support the majority view of two out of three voters that a hung parliament – with either the Coalition or Labor leading a minority government – is the most likely outcome of the election.

Labor’s primary vote has fallen two points since December 2024 to an equal record low of 31 per cent, with the Coalition’s primary vote remaining steady at 39 per cent.

Approval of the Prime Minister’s performance has fallen to a low of just 37 per cent while dis­satisfaction has risen to 57 per cent, giving Mr Albanese a net negative approval ratings of minus 20, marking a six-point fall since the last poll.

This is the worst result for the Prime Minister since the last election. His approval ratings is now lower than Mr Dutton, who lifted a point to 40 per cent and a net negative approval rating of minus 11. The head-to-head leadership contest has also narrowed to its closest margin since May 2022, with three points separating the leaders on the question of who was considered to be the preferred prime minister. Mr Dutton lifted three points to 41 per cent with Mr Albanese falling a point to 44 per cent.

Mr Albanese’s personal numbers are now worse than Scott Morrison’s at the same point in the cycle before he went on to lose the 2022 election. However, other prime ministers, including John Howard and Paul Keating, had worse numbers than Mr Albanese and still went on to win elections.

The two-point fall in Labor’s primary vote since December last year has transferred to a single-point gain both for the Greens to 12 per cent and to other minor parties and independents, including teal independents to 11 per cent. Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party remained unchanged at 7 per cent.

The Coalition’s lead of 51-49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis points to a likely minority Labor government if the results were repeated at the election.

This represents a 3.1 per cent swing against Labor since the last election result.

There are seven Labor-held seats on margins below this swing. This increases to 13 seats if a swing of 4 per cent was achieved for the Coalition. Neither would be enough for the Coalition to win a majority but could put the result in doubt over which side could form a minority government.

The poll of voter expectations shows that 29 per cent of voters believe the Coalition would win the election but only in minority government with support of independents. This is lower than the 33 per cent of voters who believe that it would be a Labor-led minority government. Some 24 per cent of voters believe the Coalition will win government in its own right compared with 15 per cent of voters believing that Labor will be able to retain majority government.

There is a significant gender difference in the expected outcome with 58 per cent of women voters believing a Coalition victory was more likely compared with 49 per cent of men.

Men were more inclined to predict a Labor win, at 51 per cent compared to 42 per cent of women voters. Younger voters said a Coalition victory was now more likely at 53-47 per cent, which was mirrored by the oldest demographic of over 65s.

The question asked who voters thought was most likely to win the election irrespective of whom they wanted to win.

There was no demographic that favoured Labor as the most likely to win the election, with the most evenly split being metropolitan and university-educated voters believing a Coalition win but at a closer margin of 51-49 per cent. The Newspoll results show that the vote for independents and minor parties other than the Greens and PHON remains 3.5 points down on the last election result. The Greens and PHON remain at around the same level of support, while Labor is two points down on its election result. The Coalition is the only party to have gained ground since the last election, having lifted 3.3 points.