Newspoll: Women drift away from Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton to Greens

Primary vote support for Labor among women dropped below 30 per cent, with both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton facing a crisis of confidence among female voters as they shift support to the Greens.

Anthony Albanese and Petter Dutton on Sunday. Picture: NewsWire / Damian Shaw

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Primary vote support for Labor among women dropped below 30 per cent for the first three months of this year, with both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton facing a crisis of confidence among female voters as they shift support to the Greens.

Labor also suffered a steep fall in primary vote support among younger voters, with little now separating the Albanese government from the Coalition or the Greens among an age group it has traditionally dominated.

An exclusive Newspoll demographic analysis and state by state breakdown also shows the ­Coalition’s national two-party-preferred lead over Labor is being propped up by an anti-Labor Victorian revolt and a surge of support for the LNP in Queensland.

The analysis reflects the political environment for the first three months of 2025 through Newspoll surveys conducted since January.

With an election expected to be called this coming weekend for May 3 or May 10, the Newspoll analysis reveals that Labor’s female support base has dipped to 29 per cent for the first time.

This is a one-point fall since the December 2024 quarter results but more significantly, represents a seven-point decline in support among female voters over the course of the election cycle.

This support has swung largely to the Greens, with the minor party now commanding 15 per cent of the female primary vote – a two-point rise since the final 2024 quarter – and six points above the level of support for the Greens among men.

Both leaders of the major parties are faring worse among female voters than among male voters in personal approval ratings, but young women in particular have a deeply negative view of Mr Dutton.

The Liberal leader’s approval rating among this demographic is just 21 per cent, with a disapproval rating of 64 per cent.

This compares to an approval rating of 40 per cent for Mr Albanese among this female age group.

However, voting intention on a two-party-preferred basis among women of all age groups favours the Coalition 51-49 per cent.

On this measure, there is no difference between the voting ­intentions of men when preferences are allocated.

Women, however, were less approving of the performance of both leaders compared to men.

Labor has also suffered a significant fall in primary vote support among the 18 to 34-year-old demographic that has traditionally been its strongest age group.

Labor’s primary vote has fallen six points in the past three months to 31 per cent while the Coalition has lifted three points to 28 per cent to draw level with the Greens, which lifted four points to 28 per cent.

Yet with a strong Greens preference flow, Labor dominates on a two-party-preferred split of 60-40 per cent.

Support for other minor parties – excluding One Nation but including the teal independents – is the lowest for any age group among 18-34 year olds.

At a national level, the averaged two-party-preferred vote over the Newspoll surveys conducted since the end of January has the Coalition maintaining a lead of 51-49 per cent.

This represents a swing of 3.1 per cent against the Albanese government since the last election.

However, the breakdown of mainland state voting intentions shows while there were swings towards the Coalition in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, there was no advantage for the Liberal/Nationals in NSW and only a small swing towards Labor in Western Australia.

This suggests that the Coalition would struggle to win enough seats in the states that mattered to be in a position to form even a minority government if the Newspoll numbers were repeated at an election.

In Victoria, which represents the largest swing for the Coalition at 3.8 per cent, Labor holds a slight advantage at 51-49 per cent.

Using a uniform formula, this would equate to the loss of three seats for Labor.

The swing towards the ­Coalition in NSW since the last election is around 1.5 per cent, with only two seats – Gilmore and Bennelong – falling within that margin.

The Coalition had drawn level on a two-party-preferred basis by the end of last year but now trails Labor by 49-51.

In Queensland, there has been a 3 per cent swing to the LNP, with a two-party-preferred lead of 57-43 per cent.

The seat with the narrowest margin held by Labor is Blair on 5.2 per cent.

Greens-held seats of Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane, are all under 4 per cent margins in a head-to-head contest with the LNP.

The Coalition has also picked up a swing of 1 per cent in WA since the election, although this is unchanged on the December 2024 quarterly analysis.

Labor still leads 54-46 per cent, with the most closely contested Labor-held seat – Tangney on a 2.8 per cent margin – falling outside the swing.

South Australia has also swung towards the Coalition in the past three months, with the Coalition and Labor now equal at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis.

In December last year, Labor was ahead 53-47 per cent.

The Greens and One Nation both lost ground.

The swing of 3 per cent in SA is close to the swing required for the Coalition to retake the seat of Boothby, which it lost to Labor at the last election.

The quarterly demographic and state-by-state analysis comprises surveys conducted by Newspoll between January 20 and March 7, with 3757 voters throughout Australia interviewed online.

Two of the Newspoll surveys were conducted before the Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 0.25 per cent.