The NT News predicts who will win in Round 9 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
We’re at the halfway point of the 2023-24 NTFL season and with some big ins across the competition there’s plenty riding on this round. We’ve analysed who will win in Round 9 and why.
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We’re halfway into the 2023-24 NTFL season, and with some big ins across the competition there’s plenty riding on Round 8.
Nightcliff will take on Waratah which will no doubt be the match of the round, while Tiwi will host their first match of the season at Wurrumiyanga Oval.
PINT will unleash former Carlton man Lochie O’Brien on Palmerston and Saints are targeting seven wins in a row when they take on Buffaloes.
Tiwi Bombers vs Wanderers
Wurrumiyanga Oval - 1.45pm
The Bombers finally get to play on their home ground at Wurrumiyanga against Wanderers, and they will be looking to put on a show for their home supporters.
Last season Tiwi broke a 988 win drought when they stormed home to beat PINT on the island, and they’ll be hoping to replicate that performance this time around.
Tiwi have had a marked improvement in the 2023-24 season, but like their upcoming opponents only have one win from seven matches to show for it.
And so on their home deck expect to see all the razzle and dazzle that the side are famous for led by Kim Kantilla and Brendan Kantilla.
However, it will be the guiding hands of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Sam Darley who steer the side in the right direction using their experience to maintain a level head among their squad.
Wanderers, meanwhile, are a rested outfit after their bye round and have a point to prove of their own, dropping their previous match against PINT by only seven points.
The Muk Muks fought hard in that encounter proving they can mix it with a side higher on the table, and know Tiwi are a side they are in touching distance of beating.
Nathan Arbon, Jaxon East and Matthew Young have been the standouts for the side this season, however only Arbon has been listed for this encounter.
Mitchel Taylor is in the side again however, back from injury and will be a danger man for any forward looking to make an impact.
On neutral territory this match could go either way, but the Bombers usually get a kick out of playing on the island.
Our tip: Tiwi
Darwin Buffaloes vs St Mary’s
TIO Stadium - 4pm
Can Saints extend their winning run to seven in a row, or will this be the match where Buffaloes hit the ground running from quarter one?
Saints have beaten everyone since their Round 1 inaccuracies against Nightcliff, and are currently the side out in front on the ladder.
Dylan Landt has been in supreme form this season and has been involved in just about everything since being made captain, including a 56 touch game.
He has some extra help in the midfield this week with both Nate Paredes and Sam Glover making their first appearances since the Round 5 thrashing of PINT.
Jack Landt avoiding suspension is another boost for the Saints with the explosive forward always available to keep the scoreboard moving alongside tall forwards Tex Korewha and Jackson Calder.
This is a side who are doing exactly what they need to keep winning and will be hard for any side to get the better of, unless they butcher their chances in front of goal again.
Meanwhile, Buffaloes suffered just their second defeat of the season last week, falling behind against Waratah in the opening quarter.
In past matches against PINT and Nightcliff they’ve been able to make up their early deficit, but this time around they were made to pay for their early mistakes.
It’s an issue they recognise and is one they need to rectify, because on their day this is a side which can mix it with anyone, they’re just not playing whole games.
Rhys Mathieson is back in this time around to add some AFL experience, alongside Matt Campbell and formerly listed players such as Trent Burgoyne and Phoenix Spicer.
But Nick Yarran and Jarrod Stokes are the players who will ignite this side should they stand a chance, with the former playing his first game against the club he had so much success with.
Our tip: Saints
Palmerston Magpies vs PINT
Cazalys Arena - 6pm
Can Palmerston impress in front of their home supporters, will PINT get the jump on them and further their own chances of playing finals footy?
It’s not been the year for the Magpies at all contending with heavy losses and injuries to some of their best players at pivotal times.
And so they find themselves eight rounds in without a win, and wondering where one will come from.
However, they have proven they can step it up a notch or two on their home deck, running the Buffaloes close for long periods back in Round 4.
Since then they’ve arguably gone backwards conceding 200 points to St Mary’s in Round 8 with a long season to come.
Phil Wills and Ashton Hams need to bring all their leadership to steer this side home and make the most of all the young talent they have in stock.
Meanwhile, PINT have a new weapon at their disposal in former Carlton man Lochie O’Brien, and they will be hoping he can make a difference in the midfield.
Steven Motlop will also be key to this side’s chances, not just in this match but going forward as they start to claw back points on the top five.
While up forward the exciting Silver Yousif makes his first return after Round 2, and he alongside Liam Holt-Fitz is sure to cause Palmerston an all manner of issues up front.
The Greenants will be chucking everything at this one to get the win, but also to prove they deserve to be in the finals fight following their recent slump in form.
Our tip: PINT
Waratah vs Nightcliff Tigers
TIO Stadium - 6.30pm
The biggest match of the weekend is perhaps the most difficult one to call with reigning premiers Waratah taking on the highly efficient Nightcliff.
The Tigers earned themselves plenty of respect from their competition last round when they beat Districts with 15.2 (92) to 12.12 (84).
It was an incredible kicking display in front of goal to only miss two scoring shots and stay in front for large periods of the game against a side which never stopped coming.
But as much as their goal scoring was key it was their defensive pressure led by the likes of Mitch Norton and Ryan Nyhuis which won the day, holding Crocs’ Jarrod Brander to just two goals.
Add in the experience of Cam Ilett and Brodie Filo as well as the x-factor of Adrian Scott and Tristan Singh-Lippo and you have a side which is hard for any side to take on.
But this Waratah side have been together for a while now and are better than anyone at grinding away at a win if they need one.
There’s some key ins for this encounter including Tom Banuelos, Robby Bartee and Dan O’Dwyer who are proven performers in the NTFL, but have yet to play much this season.
The Tah’s midfield is up there with the best in the league with Brodie Carroll, Scott Carlin, Alex Pulling, Ryan Clarke and Lachlan Cassidy all feeding off Arnold Kirby’s service.
However, Waratah will be looking to get more out of Anthony Munkara in the forward line after he went goalless in Round 8, leaving Jayden Magro as the main scoring option.
It all comes down to how Nightcliff shut down the pair up top, if their defence holds as it did against Districts they will have the upper hand.
Because if Nightcliff gets their chances they are the more accurate side.
Our tip: Nightcliff, but this is a genuine toss up
ANALYSIS: BIG TALKING POINTS FROM NTFL ROUND 8
Nightcliff’s defensive prowess, a side crossing the 200-point barrier and the top four women’s sides making their mark were some of the big talking points from NTFL Round 8.
It was Nightcliff, St Mary’s, Waratah and PINT who came out on top in the Men’s Premier League after some big matches.
And in the women’s competition it was Nightcliff, Saints, Waratah and PINT again who had the big victories.
Read all the major talking points from the round here.
Nightcliff’s defensive pressure
The Nightcliff Tigers survived a nervy encounter against Southern Districts on the back of their strong defensive pressure.
Plenty of the talk coming into the encounter would have been about Districts’ forward Jarrod Brander who had scored 19 goals from his previous three matches.
However, he was kept to just two goals and seven touches, of which he had a 29 per cent kicking efficient, because the Tigers came with a plan.
Mitchell Norton, who has played most of his footy in the Barossa Light and Gawler Football League, played the lockdown role on Brander all night and with five spoils the stats speak for themselves.
With Brander locked out the Crocs had to go for goal the hard way, which put paid to their comeback ambitions when they had all the play in the final quarter.
Jonathon Ross did get three goals back late for Districts and it looked as if they were back, but consecutive out on the fulls and a couple of behinds left the Crocs wanting when it mattered.
The Nightcliff forwards had a great performance in front of goal, rewarding their team’s efforts, with an incredibly efficient 15.2 showing.
It was the sort of performance which proved Nightcliff are a genuine contender for the premiership, particularly with the match played with the same passion often seen in finals.
The next two weeks are big tests for this Nightcliff side with reigning premiers Waratah and a St Mary’s side on a six-game winning streak.
Buffaloes’ first quarter woes
It’s been a strong start to the season for the Darwin Buffaloes sitting with just two losses from seven matches, however their slow starts have let them down.
Against both PINT, in Round 1, and Nightcliff, in Round 7, the Double Blues conceded an early deficit and were perhaps lucky on both occasions to come out on top.
But they were not afforded that fortune against Waratah, as the reigning premiers didn’t let go of their lead on their home deck, after getting out to a 29-9 advantage at quarter time.
And despite Matt Campbell negating the impact of the explosive Jayden Magro, while Anthony Munkara was also locked out, Buffaloes were never able to overcome their early deficit.
Waratah is a side who knows how to grind out a game, they’ve proven that time and again over the past three seasons, and once they have a lead they’re not usually a side to give it up.
Not to mention Buffaloes were missing the likes of ball magnet Baxter Mensch and former AFL players Mitch Robinson and Rhys Mathieson who have helped guide them in the past.
The Double Blues are a gritty side and their effort can’t be questioned, but if they don’t come into games to match their opposition they’ll end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard more often.
Two tough games are on the way against the in-form St Mary’s and a PINT side looking to squeeze its way back into finals contention.
And while the Buffs aren’t favourites against Saints they must put themselves in the contest from centre bounce if they want to stand a chance.
Top four women separate themselves
It was a weekend of blowout scores in the women’s competition as the top four sides separated themselves from the competition.
Nightcliff, St Mary’s, PINT and Waratah all thrashed their opposition in statement wins clearly marking themselves as four of the five sides that will make finals this season.
Of the four, Waratah have been the side with the most doubt around where they stand, having lost to the other three.
But last year’s grand finalists look the goods now having beaten 2021-22 premiership winners the Darwin Buffettes 9.16 (70) to 1.0 (6).
Meanwhile, Nightcliff smashed Southern Districts 11.11 (77) to 0.1 (1), and 11 goals from Steph Lawrence helped PINT beat Tiwi 25.16 (166) to 1.1 (7).
Saints had the narrowest win beating Palmerston 8.5 (53) to 2.1 (13), but despite missing their goal kicking ace Emma Stark and the experienced Jemma Iacono they never looked in trouble.
Already we’re seeing a pattern which will more than likely hold true for the rest of the season with the real battle being who gets the double chance between these four sides.
And then which of the Buffaloes and Palmerston takes out the last finals berth behind them to get at least one extra week of play time.
PINT overcome Tiwi hoodoo
PINT struggled against the Tiwi Bombers across their first season in the Men’s Premier League, but finally they’ve beaten that hoodoo.
The Bombers had their first win in 988 days when they beat the Greenants at Wurrumiyanga Oval in 2022, their first meeting last season, while their second match resulted in a draw.
Considering form it looked as if Tiwi would again get the result over PINT, with the Greenants suffering a real loss in form after the first few rounds.
PINT dominated the play against the Bombers, but inaccuracies in front of goal meant they went into three quarter time with a score of 6.15 (51) to 3.5 (23).
That’s 21 scoring shots to eight, but a score difference of just 28 points, leaving a final quarter with anyone able to take the win.
But finally the Greenants came to life kicking five goals to one to earn themselves a shot at returning to the finals fight.
Last season the Greenants lacked the leg speed to go toe to toe with the Bombers for the full four quarters, but some key recruits made the difference.
Former Port Adelaide and Geelong player Steven Motlop picked up 40 touches in the midfield, while known livewire Liam Holt-Fitz was electric when he needed to be kicking four goals.
Improved accuracy is a must if PINT want to play finals this season, but a better performance elsewhere will have boosted confidence in the side.
Saints break 200
St Mary’s proved they’re not messing around when they broke the 200-point barrier against the hapless Palmerston Magpies.
You have to look back to Round 2 of the 2022-23 season for the last time a side broke the 200 points, that being St Mary’s again beating then wooden spooners Tiwi 32.13 (205) to 7.9 (51).
On that day Jackson Calder kicked six goals, while Jack Musgrove, Dylan Landt and Nate Paredes all kicked four.
But that was somewhat a fluke performance for the then reigning premiers who were demolished by 101-points by Waratah in Round 1, before they lost to PINT and Wanderers in Rounds 3 and 4.
This year’s Saints side is a bit of a different beast now having won six matches in a row including their 33.12 (210) to 5.5 (35) win over Palmerston.
The Magpies actually scored the first two goals of the match, and had little to show for the rest of the day when the likes of Landt and Joel Garner dominated the midfield.
Tex Korewha scored seven goals, while Jackson Calder and Jack Landt finished with six and five majors respectively in an all-round demolition job.
Time will tell if there’s still improvement to come from this outfit, but as things stand this is a side with winning momentum and they will be hard to beat for anyone.
They will be put to the test ahead of the Christmas break playing Buffaloes for the first time this season in Round 9 before a challenging encounter against Nightcliff.
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