Backroom Baz: Internal Labor Party research shows swing is on in Mulgrave by-election
Internal research has sharply heightened Labor Party fears about its ability to hold onto Dan Andrew’s former seat of Mulgrave.
Victoria
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In less than a week about 47,000 Victorians will head back to the polls to vote in the Mulgrave by-election prompted by Daniel Andrews’ resignation.
Having voted in last year’s state election and the Voice referendum last month, they could be forgiven for being cranky at having to get back into the ballot box, especially given the former Premier vowed to hang in there until 2026.
Perhaps that is why there is some anxiety about the vote inside Labor.
At the very highest levels of the party concerns are mounting about the size of what sources are now describing as “an inevitable swing against us”. History shows that where a leader resigns, the subsequent by-election shows a chunky swing away from their party.
Baz has learned that some internal research has this week shocked some Labor figures because of the anti-Labor sentiment it is picking up.
Not that it means good news for the Liberal Party or Opposition Leader John Pesutto. It appears anyone jumping off Labor is showing signs of giving independent Ian Cook a shot.
Some with knowledge of the research say Labor candidate Eden Foster should get there on preferences, but that on the right day Cook could sneak in a win.
Baz reckons Labor will hold the seat, but it could be ugly if their research is right. That said, when all else fails look to the bookies, and last time Baz checked Labor was paying $1.08, the Libs $8 and Cook $11.
Wings clipped for pollie junkets... for now
Free overseas travel is a perk afforded to MPs. Sometimes.
Word out of the Electoral Matters Committee this week is that Labor MPs have failed to persuade their committee colleagues that a trip to the US and Canada is vital to complete their report into last year’s state election.
MPs had been lobbying hard for the trip, which was to focus on “social media”. But plans for the junket came unstuck when the Opposition refused to allow a parliamentary motion to extend the inquiry’s reporting date.
Of course the government could have used it’s numbers in the legislative assembly to force the extension, but that would have required debate. Instead, Baz is reliably informed some Labor MPs have been left very grumpy at the idea that their free trip has been cancelled.
It’s OK guys, there’s always next time. Parliamentary rules entitle all MPs to a $10,000 travel allowance for trips relating to either parliamentary or electorate business.
Pallas gone by Christmas
The more he denies it, the louder the beat of the jungle drums.
Speculation continues to mount that Tim Pallas is packing his bags ready to hotfoot it out of Spring St.
It’s common knowledge Pallas wanted to ride Daniel Andrews’ coat-tails out of politics when the former Premier left public life behind last month. But he was encouraged to stay to deliver at least one more budget next May, in what will be his tenth.
Pallas had hoped staying on would encourage his colleagues to sign off on a plan that would have installed him as deputy to new Premier Jacinta Allan. Alas, it wasn’t to be, and ever since word that Pallas would call it quits hasn’t died.
“He might hang around until the budget, but it’s just as likely he’ll be gone by Christmas,” one well placed source said.
His departure would be double blow for Labor who wouldn’t just lose an experienced, cool-headed treasurer, and one who doesn’t seem to be rattled by eye-watering debt. They’d also face another by-election in the seat of Werribee. It’s been safely Labor since 1979, but pollsters say without the popular Pallas in the running anything could happen in the wild west.
Great Scott! Hot Hansard remarks.
Political speak is essential in the halls of power but who knew the famous 80s movie Back to the Future was such a feature of Victorian politicians’ vernacular, especially among Labor.
In October, Premier Jacinta Allan said she was “feeling a little bit like I am driving the DeLorean in Back to the Future” when she was quizzed in question time about the Suburban Rail Loop. The next day Harriet Shing told the upper house chamber to “hop into your DeLorean and away we go”.
Naturally, Baz took to Hansard to discover who else was a fan of Marty and his time machine. Turns out that the cult hit was first mentioned in the chamber by Tim Pallas and Vicki Ward back in 2015. Danny Pearson, Tim Richardson, Lily D’Ambrosio, Shaun Leane, Gayle Tierney and Luba Grigorovitch have also all jumped on board the trend, and Baz wonders if it’s something that will catch on with the Opposition… if they ever make it back into power that truly will be a back to the future moment.
Bach’s UK move well timed
Good timing for Matt Bach’s position on drug reform to be reported this week.
His comments that “as a liberal I find it hard to get worked up about what other adults may choose to put in their mouths” as he called for more flexibility in the push to overhaul drug laws certainly got some of his colleagues’ noses out of joint. (Not as much as his opinion piece in which he begged the party to forget Menzies, and forge a new path, but that’s another story).
But his comments on drug reform seem aptly appropriate given Baz has learned Bach, who is set to retire from politics to pursue a teaching career in the UK, is headed for the seaside town of Brighton. Vibrant, strong arts and music culture, and lots and lots of drugs.
According to thisisbrighton.co.uk the town “is grappling with a dire drug abuse problem, with the city registering the highest usage rate for Cocaine, Ketamine, and MDMA.
A recent study revealed that a staggering 20 per cent of the city’s inhabitants are believed to have indulged in Cocaine, with an additional 10 per cent having used MDMA. It’s largely considered one of the UK’s drug hotspots. Now, if that doesn’t call for reform, nothing will.
Could Bach pursue a political career in the UK? Unlikely Baz is told. What’s more likely is that he returns to Melbourne to take up a plum public sector gig if the Liberal Party ever return to government.
In the meantime he’ll no doubt have lots of catching up to do with good mate Tim Smith, who has called the UK home for some time now. Safe travels, Matt. Don’t do anything Baz wouldn’t do!
Quit, pray, love
Love conquers all, they say. And Liberal staffer Natalie Litsas proved that recently, resigning her gig with Opposition Leader John Pesutto after her partner Chris Kounelis — a 26-year-old law student and secretary of the federal electorate conference in Menzies — threw his hat in the ring to fill the vacancy left by Matt Bach in the upper house’s North Eastern Metropolitan Region.
Liberal Party rules prohibit candidate spouses from serving as delegates to preselections, but allows de factos. But Baz understands Pesutto’s office made it clear to Litsas they didn’t want her serving as a delegate. Litsas promptly resigned her position, and committed herself to campaigning full time for Kounelis’ successful preselection. That’s dedication.
Meanwhile, former reality TV star and seasoned criminal barrister Sharn Coombes exited the preselection race this week after being appointed a NSW Crown Prosecutor. Her resignation as a nominee leaves 10 candidates to fight for the upper house spot on December 3.
And they’re off
Politicos were a dime a dozen at the races this week, but one former minister spotted among the crowd caught Baz’s eye.
Philip Dalidakis found his way back into the winners circle in the Birdcage on Derby Day, where he hadn’t been spotted for some time. Sources close to Phil say it would be safe to draw links between Daniel Andrews’ exit from politics, and Dalidakis’ re-entry to the Birdcage.
Overheard by Baz
“Last questions!” an order rarely shouted at press conferences with former Premier Daniel Andrews now gets a regular run under successor Jacinta Allan
Guess Who
Which senior Liberal is considering leaving the party amid angst about the direction it has taken of late?
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