The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Forde, held by Bert van Manen

One of the most marginal seats in the country, Forde could be ripe for the taking by Labor — but strong One Nation support could prove to be a wildcard.

Forde

Incumbent: Bert van Manen

Margin: 0.6 per cent

Candidates

LNP: Bert van Manen

Labor: Des Hardman, a Logan Hospital radiographer who ran against van Manen in 2016.

One Nation: Ian Bowron

UAP: Paul Creighton

Local issues

Cost of living pressures, infrastructure, health and education will be key issues for the 165,500 voters.

ONE NATION WILL BE WILDCARD - IF IT RUNS

One Nation and Clive Palmer’s party could be wildcards in Forde, where the LNP’s Bert van Manen is fighting to hold onto his seat.

One Nation claimed a massive 30 per cent of the primary vote in Logan at the 2017 state election.

Labor claimed 42.3 per cent and the LNP won just 18.3 per cent.

It’s unlikely One Nation could push the LNP out of the race entirely as it did in the state election but van Manen will be relying on its preferences if he hopes to get across the line.

Preference flows from Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party could also help him retain the seat after the LNP made an in principle preference deal to put UAP second on its how-to-vote cards.

Mr Palmer’s party will in turn preference the LNP second.

It comes as polling shows Mr Palmer’s costly advertising campaign is cutting through with voters and could nab a primary vote of 8 per cent on average.

THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN QUEENSLAND

CAPRICORNIA: Huge battle set for marginal seat

DAWSON: LNP maverick hanging by a thread

DICKSON: Peter Dutton’s fight to the death

FLYNN: Wildcards could cause upset result

HERBERT: Seat could turn on just 19 votes

PETRIE: Howarth hopes for a third miracle

Bert van Manen claimed Forde in a nailbiter in 2016 — and experts predict it could be another tight race. Picture: AAPImage/David Clark

Van Manen claimed the seat in 2016 in a nail biter that wasn’t declared until days after the election.

He won 40.63 per cent of the primary vote, while Labor candidate Des Hardman claimed 37.64 per cent.

Labor was in front by 69 votes on polling day.

Van Manen only scrapped through thanks to pre-poll and postal votes, finally claiming the seat by just 1062 votes or 50.63 per cent after preferences.

Labor is confident it can win the seat this time and political experts agree.

“A margin of 0.7 per cent is too narrow to hold this swinging seat,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said.

Des Hardman, the Labor Candidate for Forde. Picture: Mike Batterham

“Bert van Manen, like LNP member for Petrie Luke Howarth, is a high profile MP who saw off former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie in 2013. But this time it’s too big an ask.

“Labor should take it. Like Petrie, local infrastructure and cost of living will feature here.

“Expect leaders to visit.”

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, also expected Labor to claim the seat.

WHAT VOTERS WANT

Power prices, local road upgrades, aid for drought-stricken farmers, education and health funding and the so-called “retiree tax” are key issues for voters in Forde.

A social media analysis by News Corp and Storyful Australia shows power prices and cost of living pressures attracted some of the strongest responses on LNP candidate and current MP Bert van Manen’s Facebook page.

Many respondents were sceptical of his claim that the Coalition’s efforts to push down power prices was getting results.

Drought relief for farmers was another major issue that gained a big reaction, along with local infrastructure promises such as funding for upgrades to the Mt Lindesay Highway and the M1 exits.

Mr van Manen’s posts slamming Labor over its “tax grab” by axing franking credit refunds also got traction.

Labor candidate Des Hardman’s posts about a “fair go for Forde” also got a lot of attention, as well as funding promises for public schools and the Logan Hospital

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN QUEENSLAND

Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton may be unsafe in Dickson, but the Liberals’ asylum-seeker policy push is likely to secure votes in the sunshine state as concerns for border protection and immigration heat up, political scientist Dr Paul Williams says.

Both of the major parties will need to lift their game if they want to win over Queensland’s ‘mini-states’ ahead of election day and job security, cost of living, economy and infrastructure are issues residents want to hear.

The state’s divided, yet strong views on border control, refugee policy and the Adani coal mine are sure to be vote securing in the north.

Dr Williams said the party leaders should be spending more time in regional Queensland to show they understand residents needs there are different to Brisbane.

Outside the city, asylum-seeker chatter gets louder, fuelled by the likes of Senator Fraser Anning and Bob Katter.

Dr Williams said Dickson was not a safe seat and Dutton would be in for a fight, but “if and when Dutton goes down he will only just lose.”

“The asylum seeker debate has reignited and it’s caught the attention of the electorates and Queensland is the most sensitive state to that,” he said, adding that refugee policy would be a good talking point for Scott Morrison in the state.

Political scientist Dr Paul Williams of Griffith University says Queensland and Victoria are the key states in this year’s federal election.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Her shift on Adani turned the state election in her favour, Williams says. Picture: Chris McCormack

He noted Morrison had struggled to win fans in Brisbane, still bitter about losing Malcolm Turnbull as PM.

Dr Williams does not foresee Liberal success in Queensland this time round.

But some, like Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, will likely be spared the swing.

He also pointed out the state isn’t a huge fan of Bill Shorten either, despite state Labor’s success under Annastacia Palaszczuk.

He said the opposition could not rely on her to help them secure a federal win.

Green issues like protection of the Great Barrier Reef is important to Queensland and Shorten has gained support over his opposition of the Adani coal mine after Palaszczuk won the state election when she changed her tune, declaring Labor would not fund it.

“It clearly turned the election for her,” Dr Williams said.

“It’s very interesting to see how Bill Shorten was more anti-Adani than the Queensland government,” he said.

“Certainly the resistance to Adani has grown astronomically in the last two years and there’s a huge level of scepticism.”

Dr Williams expected Shorten to stick with anti-Adani in his fight as he works to firm up Greens preferences.

“I expect Morrison to lose and Shorten to form government based on Queensland and Victoria result alone,” he said.

— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian

Originally published as The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Forde, held by Bert van Manen