AFL list analysis: Collingwood must make finals, Hawks, Tigers, Dogs, Roos premiership chances
WHEN will your club’s flag window open, what are the holes in the list and who is under the pump? Ex-Hawks recruiter Gary Buckenara puts every Victorian team under the microscope.
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IS YOUR club a premiership contender or ready for a rebuild?
Over the past two-and-a-half weeks ex-Hawthorn recruiter Gary Buckenara has analysed the lists of each Victorian club in an exclusive column for the Herald Sun.
Buckenara helped build the Hawks three-peat premiership list after being employed at the club in 2004 as a key member of its recruiting team, and is one of footy’s most respected talent scouts.
A premiership player at Hawthorn, Buckenara perhaps saved his best work for the time he spent as a recruiter, where he, as the club’s sole full-time recruiting staff member in 2004, delivered a draft bounty of Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin and Jordan Lewis in his first year.
He left Hawthorn in July this year and will be the talent-spotter for the next series of Foxtel’s The Recruit but before that, he put every Victorian club under the microscope.
A very honest Buckenara predicts when, based on the strength of each list, a club can expect to play finals and then become a serious challenger for the premiership, outlines what type of players clubs need to target and who’s under the pump or should go from each club.
Here’s a run-down of what he had to say about your team.
CARLTON
The Blues are at least five years away from pushing up into the top eight and at least seven years away from challenging for a premiership if they do everything right.
The biggest thing when I watch Carlton play is they don’t have line-breakers and they don’t have players who can really hurt opposition with their skills. Pace, endurance and elite kicking skills — they’re the types of players the Blues need to find a fair few of in the next two to three years.
The Blues are at least five years away from pushing up into the top eight and at least seven years away from challenging for a premiership if they do everything right.
So be patient, Carlton. You’re in for a long and bumpy ride.
READ the full Carlton list analysis
ESSENDON
Essendon might have won just six matches for the season and sacked its coach but it’s not all doom and gloom at Bomberland.
Yes, they have an ageing list — seven players aged 28 or over — Jake Carlisle has left and there are needs that need to be filled but there’s plenty of talent on the list to work with.
If I’m going to put a timeframe on it, I’ll be conservative and say that in three years there should be a very different way in how people are looking at Essendon.
READ the full Essendon list analysis
ST KILDA
The Saints could go be knocking on the door of the top eight in a year or two but if they don’t keep developing they could stall and do a bit of a Melbourne. A lot of that sits on the shoulders of Hugh Goddard and Paddy McCartin because if they don’t develop into top line players, then that will set St Kilda back a fair bit.
But if everything goes right and some of these players really come on, then St Kilda could be challenging for a premiership in 3-5 years.
READ the full St Kilda list analysis
MELBOURNE
It’s hard to put a finger on why so many of Melbourne’s top picks didn’t become good players — it’s not like when I was at the Hawks we didn’t rate players like Jack Watts, Jack Grimes and Jimmy Toumpas.
But now, as I look at the list and take into account what I saw from the Demons this year, it’s fair to say Melbourne fans, you can start saving for finals tickets.
It might not be in 2016 but in two years (three at the most), the Demons will break the finals drought and feature in September after a very, very long rebuild.
READ the full Melbourne list analysis
COLLINGWOOD
The Pies haven’t made the finals for two years and something that has held them back a bit is their ball movement. Too often it stalls or gets cut off because there aren’t enough penetrating kickers in the team. They have too many guys who have what we call “slow kicks”.
More players who really punch the ball when they kick it so it gets there fast are important for the Pies.
Finals are a non-negotiable for Collingwood in 2016 — they have been disappointing the last two seasons despite being in a rebuild/re-jig mode.
READ the full Collingwood list analysis
GEELONG
Geelong will play finals next year. There is no doubt about that after its superstar trade additions of Patrick Dangerfield, Lachie Henderson, Scott Selwood and Zac Smith. But the jury is still out as to whether the Cats are a genuine premiership contender.
Having those four guys along with Joel Selwood doesn’t guarantee you a premiership. So what has to happen?
READ the full Geelong list analysis
WESTERN BULLDOGS
I know Bulldogs fans don’t want to get their hopes up and I don’t blame them, but don’t be surprised if the Dogs are right there at the end of September next year.
Next year they could do what Hawthorn did in 2008 and win a premiership earlier than expected. I can see quite a few similarities between the two teams.
READ the full Western Bulldogs list analysis
NORTH MELBOURNE
North Melbourne are in an interesting position given the age of most of its key players and the fact it has played in the last two preliminary finals but haven’t progressed further.
It’s the obvious call but I’ve got to make it anyway — the Kangaroos need to win the premiership either this year or next.
But is the list good enough? I’m not sure.
READ the full North Melbourne list analysis
RICHMOND
What some might not realise about the Tigers is their list isn’t as young as some might have you believe.
This is not a young team. This is a team in its prime.
But it is a team that hasn’t delivered. It hasn’t delivered on the plans the club has or on the expectations of its fans.
The core group has been together for at least four or five years now, so they should be doing a bit better than what they’ve shown in September.
READ the full Richmond list analysis
HAWTHORN
Hawthorn has won the last three premierships but their era of success isn’t over yet. The Hawks will still be the team to beat in 2016.
The Hawks have lost premiership players Matt Suckling to the Bulldogs and Brian Lake and David Hale to retirement but I don’t expect that to hurt their chances next year. The depth of the list can cover the loss of the trio.
READ the full Hawthorn list analysis
Originally published as AFL list analysis: Collingwood must make finals, Hawks, Tigers, Dogs, Roos premiership chances
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