Melbourne list analysis: Demons will play finals soon says Gary Buckenara
MELBOURNE fans, you can start saving for finals tickets. That’s the message from list expert Gary Buckenara, but he has a red flag on a Demons trade.
MELBOURNE fans, you can start saving for finals tickets.
It might not be in 2016 but in two years (three at the most), the Demons will break the finals drought and feature in September after a very, very long rebuild.
And then add on a year or two and we should be talking about Melbourne as a genuine premiership contender if everything goes right.
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The Demons have promised their supporters and football community for a long time and now it’s time to deliver.
It’s hard to put a finger on why so many of Melbourne’s top picks didn’t become good players — it’s not like when I was at the Hawks we didn’t rate players like Jack Watts, Jack Grimes and Jimmy Toumpas.
There has been some bad luck with injuries to these top picks but it also comes down to development. Developing these young and talented players is such a critical aspect of what clubs are trying to achieve and that side of things seems to have been a bit off at the Demons.
It’s also about leadership both on and off the field — who’s setting the example and showing these young players the work ethic and attitude it takes to play senior footy?
But things have turned around and, with a bit more polish, Melbourne fans should start to get excited.
Angus Brayshaw looks like he’s going to be a very, very good player, Jack Viney is going to be good, Christian Petracca has had bad luck but he’s a highly-touted player and there are plenty of other good midfielders in there.
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Jesse Hogan — if his back can stay sound — looks like he’ll be one of the best power forwards of the competition in the near future and Chris Dawes fills a key post alongside him, while Tom McDonald and Lynden Dunn do the job down back and Colin Garland and Sam Frost can do the same.
There are a heap of positives, but the negative is that the Demons don’t yet have the outside class required to take the next step just yet.
But once that outside class has been added to complement Hogan and his offsider Jeff Garlett up forward, there is definitely something to look forward to.
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In terms of trading, speculation surrounds Jack Watts, but I believe the Demons need to hang on to him. His inconsistency is frustrating but he does have talent, he has shown us that albeit only at times. He just needs to better understand how hard the AFL environment is because he doesn’t compete hard enough. He’ll do it for a little bit but he’s not consistent in his efforts and doesn’t have enough of a competitive nature.
But the reality is he is a former No. 1 draft pick and you’re not going to get due compensation for him in this draft, especially if there isn’t an offer of a draft pick inside 30. In this year’s talent pool, Watts wouldn’t command a first-round pick.
The only deal I would consider trading him for would be a speedy, good outside ball user or a young developing ruckman.
Jeremy Howe also won’t command a first-round draft pick — too often he goes missing in games and in quarters, he can be a bit of a one-trick pony. He needs to find more of the footy.
The Jake Melksham offer is interesting. To me, Melksham is very similar to the types of players Melbourne already has enough of. When you’re considering the balance aspect of the list build, which is very important, Melksham is a strange one.
Yes, he’ll add some experience to the list, but someone like a Jake Carlisle would have been more of a priority and the Dees should be knocking the door down to try to get someone like him.
Ben Kennedy from Collingwood is a bit the same. He adds some of that pace that the Demons need but his kicking at AFL level needs a lot of work.
WHAT THEY NEED
Despite having Hogan, the Demons do still need another key-position forward and at least one key-position defender. They will also need some ruck back-up in the future and a lot more outside speed and good ball users.
Melbourne has a lot of similar type players — the inside midfielders — Viney, Bernie Vince, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson, Alex Neale-Bullen to name a few.
The Demons need line-breakers who are good users of the footy. They’ve got Christian Salem who ticks both boxes and Billy Stretch and Jimmy Toumpas — who might not be there next year — can run a bit, but they aren’t great ball users. Heritier Lumumba provides good run but isn’t an elite kick. Jay Kennedy-Harris is one who does offer that, but they need more.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Chris Dawes and Lynden Dunn fill important roles and have been part of the reason why Melbourne have improved, but they need to step up even more next season.
Cam Pederson is the same, he can go forward and back but can he take them forward? Ben Newton is another one; he’s had injuries but needs to show something, Matt Jones, Dean Kent, Viv Michie, Jake Spencer and Dean Terlich also need to step up. There are too many of them to drop off the list this year, especially given the lack of depth in the talent of the draft, so they need to start showing something more next season to prove they have a long-term future.
I’ll also throw in the development staff at the Melbourne Football Club. You need to step up. These kids need to develop and realise the potential that recruiters have seen in them, and that can only happen with the right coaching from the development team.
WHO SHOULD GO
Daniel Cross and Mark Jamar have retired and Rohan Bail, Jack Fitzpatrick, Jordie McKenzie and Aidan Riley have been delisted already but Kent, Michie and Terlich could be in trouble given they’ve been around for a while. I’m also not sure on Matt Jones and Jayden Hunt.
Melbourne might look to cut some more and refresh with some rookies but there are a number of players who they will keep to keep to fill an immediate need given you can’t make too many list changes.
CRYSTAL BALL
Melbourne has definitely made some improvements. There weren’t as many of those big losses in 2015 as there have been in recent seasons and the Demons under Paul Roos are definitely more competitive. They even had a surprise win or two against teams like Geelong and Collingwood, which is a very promising sign.
Given the rebuild has taken so long and stalled for a year or two until Roosy came on board, can fans be confident they will get there with these young players? Yes, they can.
I don’t think the list is there yet in terms of challenging for a premiership, but I suspect in two years they should be knocking on the door of the eight and playing finals.
Having said that, a lot depends on player development and which experienced players they bring via trading.
Melbourne needs to decide whether it will be a premiership team or just a team that is competitive and makes finals, but doesn’t really challenge. That’s going to be the big question mark.
Gary Buckenara helped build Hawthorn’s three-peat premiership list and now he runs a rule over club lists in an exclusive column for the Herald Sun.
Buckenara was a major part of Hawthorn’s recruiting team between 2004-2015 and was responsible for bringing Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and Jordan Lewis to the Hawks in 2004 when he was the Hawks’ sole full-time recruiter.
Originally published as Melbourne list analysis: Demons will play finals soon says Gary Buckenara
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