Geelong list analysis: Gary Buckenara says Cats will challenge for top four in 2016
TOP eight is a minimum for Geelong next season. But Patrick Dangerfield can’t win a premiership on his own, writes list expert Gary Buckenara.
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GEELONG will play finals next year. There is no doubt about that after its superstar trade additions. But the jury is still out as to whether the Cats are a genuine premiership contender.
Blockbuster trade moves to secure Patrick Dangerfield and Lachie Henderson as well as the addition of Scott Selwood have the Cats primed to finish in the top eight as a minimum. The acquisition of those players — particularly Dangerfield — adds experience and the final pieces of the puzzle for Chris Scott.
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Add those names to Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan, Steven Motlop, Tom Hawkins, Tom Lonergan, Harry Taylor, Andrew Mackie, Corey Enright, Jimmy Bartel, Mark Blicavs, Cam Guthrie and Josh Caddy and Geelong is a seriously good outfit next year.
But a lot also depends on the further development of some of Geelong’s next tier and that will decide whether or not they just knock on the door of the top four — as I expect they’ll do — or they’re a genuine flag chance.
It’s been a running rebuild for Geelong because despite playing finals (yes, they missed out this year) they have also introduced a group of talented kids that can seriously play. I’m talking the likes of Darcy Lang, Corey Gregson, Nakia Cockatoo and Jake Kolodjashnij, and Jordan Murdoch is developing nicely too.
There is a good mix there for Geelong and plenty of talent. Stephen Wells has done a brilliant job putting that list together and finding players, but just because they’ve brought in a guy like Dangerfield doesn’t mean things will just happen for Geelong.
The Cats have also had their injury problems in the ruck, which has affected their talented group of midfielders, and they’ll need to get that right next year. Even Zac Smith, who they’re chasing in the trade period, has had his injury worries.
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Much of the debate surrounding the Cats this season though has been around the delisting of premiership heroes Steve Johnson, James Kelly and Mathew Stokes, but in my opinion they’ve done the right thing.
Johnson is the one who’s stiff out of that group, but if Daniel Menzel can get a little bit of luck with injury then he will fill the void nicely.
They have lost a lot of experience but they’ve smartly replaced that nous with younger players who know how to make it in the AFL.
There are actually only seven players on Geelong’s list heading into next season that are 28 or older — that’s the same or fewer than the amount clubs like Richmond and Carlton — but they’re all playing good footy, otherwise they wouldn’t be there, as Scott and the list management team has shown.
The Cats gave away a first-round pick next year for Henderson which is a high price, but I think he will very much benefit from being part of a better side. His consistency will improve with better players around him.
WHAT THEY NEED
Going forward the Cats need some more skilled outside line-breakers with speed and endurance. I say that because when I look at Geelong’s list it has a lot of players in the same mould — they’re strong ball winners. I’m thinking of players like Bartel, Selwood, Caddy, Guthrie, Jed Bews, Josh Cowan, Gregson, George Horlin-Smith, Billie Smedts and Jackson Thurlow — and now you can throw Scott Selwood into that mix as well.
The Cats have also targeted Smith because they do need another big man. They can’t afford injuries to Blicavs or Nathan Vardy — who has already had plenty of injury worries — or even Rhys Stanley. Currently, they only have Padraig Lucey as back-up because with Dawson Simpson going to GWS and Hamish McIntosh retired.
They also need to look at who’s going to replace Lonergan and Taylor and even Hawkins because in terms of height, there aren’t many young players on the list. Josh Walker is headed to Brisbane, Shane Kersten has been OK but outside of that there isn’t much coming through.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Zac Bates, Cameron Delaney, Michael Luxford, Lincoln McCarthy and rookie ruckman Tom Read are probably the guys feeling the heat. A lot of those guys are fairly small in stature and have been around for two or three years but haven’t really got a look in and have probably fallen back in the list behind guys like Lang and Gregson.
WHO SHOULD GO
The retirements of Jared Rivers, Hamish McIntosh, Sam Blease, Brad Hartman and James Toohey plus the moving on of flag heroes Johnson, Kelly and Stokes means the Cats are unlikely to make further changes to the list despite the trade additions. Jarrad Jansen would have been on the block but he looks headed for Brisbane. And I’ve got a question mark next to Cam Delaney. He was dropped by North Melbourne and the Cats swooped, but he hasn’t played a game since although he has had his injury problems.
CRYSTAL BALL
The Cats need to look at who will step up and fill the void when the next wave of experienced guys retire — Enright, Bartel, Mackie, Taylor and Lonergan.
Enright can play tall and small, so can Mackie but he’s a runner as well and Taylor and Lonergan are key-position players so it’s not going to be easy, even though Henderson has come on board and Kolodjashnij looks a likely type.
Development is critical for the Cats despite the additions of those big names for next season because a flag won’t just arrive. It’ll be the culmination of the development of the second tier and some luck with injuries, too.
Gary Buckenara helped build Hawthorn’s three-peat premiership list and now he runs a rule over club lists in an exclusive column for the Herald Sun.
Buckenara was a major part of Hawthorn’s recruiting team between 2004-2015 and was responsible for bringing Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and Jordan Lewis to the Hawks in 2004 when he was the Hawks’ sole full-time recruiter.
Originally published as Geelong list analysis: Gary Buckenara says Cats will challenge for top four in 2016
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