Carlton list analysis: Gary Buckenara says Blues five years away from finals
RECRUITING expert Gary Buckenara has a message for Carlton fans: Be patient. He reveals what the Blues need, who should stay and who should go.
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BE PATIENT, Carlton. You’re in for a long and bumpy ride.
The Blues are at least five years away from pushing up into the top eight and at least seven years away from challenging for a premiership if they do everything right.
GET BUCKY’S EXCLUSIVE LIST ANALYSIS THROUGHOUT THE TRADE PERIOD. TOMORROW: ESSENDON
The recruiting has to be spot on, as does the list management — bringing in the right type of players and letting others go — and working well with the coaches and development team.
But wholesale changes to the list this year isn’t the way to go about the rebuild.
Here’s why.
The lack of quality of this year’s draft could save the careers of many Carlton players because it’s a raffle as to the quality of player clubs will get beyond picks 25-30.
This isn’t a draft you want to be having a lot of picks after 30.
So, if players such as Chris Yarran, Lachie Henderson and Tom Bell want to leave, first-round draft picks is the priority and after that, it’s players.
If you’re only going to get a second or third-round selection in a trade, then that’s not going to get you a lot in this draft. Going down the other path of bringing in a player for a player, at least you’re getting someone who can play for you and offer you something.
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In Yarran’s case, Richmond’s first-round draft pick (currently No.12) is the absolute priority. But if they won’t offer that, then a straight swap for young key forward Liam McBean would be a suitable trade.
If the Tigers offer their second-round pick, currently No.31, that’s not great reward for a player of the quality of Yarran, who regardless of his issues is a class player.
McBean is a tall, thin and wirey sort of lad but he can run. He can play back and forward as a key position, he’s a hardworking leading type or a handy defender at centre half-back. He’s been playing good footy at VFL level but hasn’t been able to break into the 22 often. He’d be a reasonable player to get.
Tiger Ben Lennon would also be a good addition.
For Henderson, Josh Walker has been touted as a straight swap from Geelong but the Blues should first ask about Shane Kersten.
It’s a bit like for like but there’s also the issue that Walker has had some quality forwards around him and getting the second or third-best defender. He won’t get that at Carlton.
Kersten has a bit more upside than Walker — he’s a lovely kick of the footy, has a good pair of hands. If I was at Carlton, I’d prefer him over Walker.
Darcy Lang would be another the Blues should ask about. He’s a good ball user and a good little footballer.
The biggest thing when I watch Carlton play is they don’t have line-breakers and they don’t have players who can really hurt opposition with their skills. Pace, endurance and elite kicking skills — they’re the types of players the Blues need to find a fair few of in the next two to three years.
And that’s in addition to key defenders and forwards.
The Blues should also be looking at a young ruckman — in the draft or trade — to add to Matthew Kreuzer, Cameron Wood and Robbie Warnock, if he stays.
Stephen Silvagni has a big job to do along with new coach Brendon Bolton. Everything has to go right and patience and belief from the club as a whole, the board and supporters is a must.
If they start getting impatient and looking for a quick fix, then that’s the worst thing they could do.
WHO SHOULD GO?
Chris Judd, Andrew Carrazzo and David Ellard have already retired and Matthew Watson, Blaine
Johnson and Cameron Giles are gone, while Henerdon and Yarran want to go. Bell — they should try and keep him. Play hardball and it might force Brisbane to give up their early second pick (currently No. 21) if they really want him but if they can’t get that, keep him. A third-round pick of Brisbane’s (currently No. 39), there’s no guarantee the Blues will get a player they want or will add to the list, especially in this draft.
WHAT DO THEY NEED?
Key defenders, key forwards, they need a quick small forward and they need outside speed and endurance with elite kicking skills. At the moment, Carlton has got a lot and have had a lot of inside-type midfielders about the same pace who aren’t great users of the footy and you don’t need too many of them. What’s really lacking is the genuine leg speed and endurance and good users of the footy coming off half-back.
The Blues do have to be aware that elite kicking skills from outside midfielders, rebounding
defenders and high half-forward flankers is a really important aspect they need to hone in on
because they just don’t have enough of them.
They need three to four of those types of players over the next few years, whether it’s through trade or the draft — they’re the priority but you also can’t overlook the key defence and key forward needs. It’s a balancing act.
As for experienced players from other clubs, forget guys who are 28 years or older, they won’t be part of Carlton’s next premiership. If a player comes up who fills a specific need that are around the low to mid-20s age bracket then that’s something the Blues would look at.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP?
There are a number of players in this category but you can’t get rid of all of them, they’ll need to keep players on to give them a bit of depth. Players like Dennis Armfield, Jayden Foster, Nick Graham, Nick Holman, Liam Jones, Jason Tutt, Bradley Walsh, Mark Whiley and Ciaran Sheehan — are these players going to be in the crystal ball of the premiership? I’m not sure. Out of those, the ones you may keep around are Armfield, Graham, Holman, Jones and Tutt, but are they premiership players?
CRYSTAL BALL
They’ve got seven players turning 29 or older — Wood, Warnock, Andrew Walker, Kade Simpson, Sam Rowe, Marc Murphy and Michael Jamison — so what they’ve got to decide is how long this rebuild is going to go for and which players will be around for a premiership when they improve. But it’s too late to trade most of those; they won’t get much in return, so they’ll play an important role in the development of youngsters like Patrick Cripps.
THE NO.1 PICK
It has to be Jacob Weitering. The young key defender can come in and play straight away. The other one is Josh Schache as a tall forward/ruckman who is a beautiful kick and hardly misses inside 50. But I think they’ll go the defender.
Weitering is a good fit for them because they really need to bolster that key defensive area. Obviously, they need some key forwards as well and Schache would be a good addition, but to bolster that defence with a player in Weitering who could probably down the track be a captain of the club is too good to pass up.
He’s such a good kid at everything he does, he’ll come in and I think they’ll get game time into him straight away and he’ll hold down a key position role even though it’s a tough ask to ask a young man to do that, he’s got such a level head.
He’s a perfect fit for the Blues at pick 1.
Gary Buckenara helped build Hawthorn’s three-peat premiership list and now he runs a rule over club lists in an exclusive column for the Herald Sun.
Buckenara was a major part of Hawthorn’s recruiting team between 2004-2015 and was responsible for bringing Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and Jordan Lewis to the Hawks in 2004 when he was the Hawks’ sole full-time recruiter.
Originally published as Carlton list analysis: Gary Buckenara says Blues five years away from finals
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