North Melbourne list analysis: Roos must win flag in 2016 or 2017 otherwise chance might be gone
NORTH Melbourne are in an interesting position and have a big decision to make in the next year or two, expert recruiter Gary Buckenara writes.
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NORTH Melbourne is in an interesting position given the age of most of its key players and the fact it has played in the last two preliminary finals but haven’t progressed further.
It’s the obvious call but I’ve got to make it anyway — the Kangaroos need to win the premiership either this year or next.
But is the list good enough? I’m not sure.
There are 17 players on the list who are turning 28 or over in 2016 and seven players — Brent Harvey, Nick Dal Santo, Michael Firrito, Drew Petrie, Scott Thompson, Daniel Wells and Jarrad Waite — who are 30 or older.
All of them are critical players in Brad Scott’s flag push.
To me, the immediate issue for North Melbourne is that three of those 30 or older players are starting 18 key position defenders and two are starting 18 key position forwards. That is the biggest problem.
Ben Brown is developing OK as a third tall but the concern is soon he will get the first or second defender and after that, there aren’t many others given Aaron Black looks like he might be on the move.
Robbie Tarrant has emerged as a very good defender and his decision to re-sign was absolutely critical, probably more critical to North Melbourne’s chances of a premiership and its future endeavours than people realise.
Sam Durdin is one who can play forward or back but he still, in my opinion, has a lot more developing and learning about the game to do in terms of involving himself and competing harder. I still think he’s a fair way off. Daniel Nielson is 194cm but only had his first season this year and is untried and Joel Tippett has been given his chances.
A decision needs to be made in list management as to whether they head to the trade table or free agency in the next year or so to replace these guys or do they go to the draft? If it’s the latter then that puts a lot of pressure on in terms of ladder position and whether they stay competitive.
Trading for key position players, as we’ve seen in this trade period with Jake Carlisle and Charlie Dixon, is expensive in terms of draft picks and salary cap. Have the Roos got the space to go to free agency or trade and do a bit of a Hawthorn in that sense to fill the holes?
The ruck is also an area that needs to be addressed despite how amazing Todd Goldstein has been in the last couple of years. He rarely misses a game but what happens if he suffers a bad injury? Daniel Currie has been traded, American Eric Wallace has been delisted, Braydon Preuss is probably a mile off being able to compete at AFL level and Brown is a back-up and we don’t know what’s happening with Majak Daw.
North Melbourne is also not a very skilled kicking side — they don’t have many players who have speed and endurance and who kick it well, so that’s another area that needs addressing.
Shaun Atley has pace but can be a bit erratic with his ball use, Daniel Wells is the outside class but is always injured. The addition of Jed Anderson will help because he is aggressive, has pace and uses it well but they still have too many of the same type.
I think of guys like Ben Cunnington, Ben Jacobs, Trent Dumont, Sam Gibson, Taylor Garner, Kieran Harper, Luke McDonald, Brad McKenzie — they’re all a similar type of player. While some might have good leg speed and others not, their ball use isn’t great. Ryan Bastinac also fits into that category but he might also be on the move.
Having class on the outside to finish off the hard work of grunt players like Andrew Swllow and Jack Ziebell — both who can kick goals as well — and Cunnington is why they missed Wells so much this year.
The acquisition of Jed Anderson was a good move but even more important is the whether to trade or keep Black decision. If they can get a first-round pick then you’d probably do the deal but he is so critical for the key position needs that I’d say try and convince him to stay and do all you can to keep him happy.
You can’t promise a guy 22 games but you try and win him over by saying we want to play you, we see there is a future for you here, we need the exact type of player you are but we just need you to improve in this area and this one. If you do that, you will get the opportunities here.
The best thing they could do is make it really clear for him and if Black needs some inspiration, he need not look further than Ryan Schoenmakers at Hawthorn.
WHAT THEY NEED
I’ve already mentioned the types the Kangaroos need earlier in the column because it’s so pertinent in how they shape up next year, where they are still in the premiership conversation.
Like all teams but it’s probably more critical in North Melbourne’s case, they also need a healthy list. Injuries to Goldstein, Petrie, Thompson, Waite and the Roos are in strife.
But what North Melbourne really needs is to make a decision: Continue to be competitive or start building for the future.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
The Roos won’t make too many changes but there are some players who need to step up including Daw, who despite his off-field issues needs to step up on the field and be that guy who can step up in the ruck.
Aaron Mullett showed some good signs but went missing this year for one reason or another, Robbie Nahas was dropped for the semi-final and didn’t get back in for the preliminary final, Joel Tippett has been given his chances but can’t nail down a spot and Kieran Harper didn’t feature. If he doesn’t leave, Ryan Bastinac is also under the pump.
WHO SHOULD GO
Leigh Adams and Nathan Grima have retired, Scott McMahon, Max Warren and Eric Wallace have been delisted and Daniel Currie has been traded so I don’t think there will be anything further from North Melbourne this season although I do have a big question mark on Daw because of his lack of consistency and effort. Tippett might soon run out of chances and I’m not sure about rookie Will Fordham.
CRYSTAL BALL
North Melbourne is interesting because if they don’t remain competitive it has an impact in a number of areas of the club, including membership. I think the mindset at the Roos usually is that they can’t just completely turn the list over and go for kids because they want to stay competitive but I think the time is coming, given they have 17 players 28 or older, that they need to invest in youth.
Really though, if North Melbourne is going to win a premiership it’s going to be in the next year or two but the problem with that is living for today is a problem for tomorrow. And tomorrow can come very quickly sometimes and really bite you.
If you trade your first pick out every year, we know that players brought in later in the draft aren’t always key players in premiership teams. So if North Melbourne do that, then the depth of players coming in to replace these older guys, the quality won’t be as good.
History says taking that approach doesn’t win you a premiership but rebuilding your list with good list management, planning, development of players you do bring in via the draft and then bringing in the right players to fill gaps does.
Gary Buckenara helped build Hawthorn’s three-peat premiership list and now he runs a rule over club lists in an exclusive column for the Herald Sun.
Buckenara was a major part of Hawthorn’s recruiting team between 2004-2015 and was responsible for bringing Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and Jordan Lewis to the Hawks in 2004 when he was the Hawks’ only full-time recruiter.
Originally published as North Melbourne list analysis: Roos must win flag in 2016 or 2017 otherwise chance might be gone
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