Opinion
This rule suggests the US is on the brink of recession
The “Sahm rule” suggests the US may be near a recession, and any sharp increase in unemployment will likely be met by aggressive Fed rate cuts.
Christopher JoyeColumnistThe US Federal Reserve is paving the way to cut rates in September, just two months ahead of a US presidential election that many think Donald Trump will win.
A politically sensitive Fed has been desperate to cut its policy rate all year from its lofty 5.25 to 5.50 per cent range (notably 100 basis points above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s globally low cash rate).
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